Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The same question elsewhere
3 venues carry it- Polymarketthis market
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
204 holders · 52 comments · read Oct 1, 01:14 PM UTC
- LimitlessOpen →
Anthropic IPO by __: September 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
0 holders · read Oct 1, 05:30 AM UTC
- PredictFunOpen →
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
read Oct 1, 12:58 AM UTC
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 82% Yes | Open |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 98% No | Open |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | Polymarket | 72% Yes | Open |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | Polymarket | 81% Yes | Open |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? | Polymarket | 78% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 11 hours agoTop holders
- Ume-Chang100810566713159522284942057467208361746688416322049201839803236482344990086418
- coali10100810566713159522284942057467208361746688416322049201839803236482344990086418
- godsofthunder100810566713159522284942057467208361746688416322049201839803236482344990086418
- betwick100810566713159522284942057467208361746688416322049201839803236482344990086418
- Partial-Thinker100810566713159522284942057467208361746688416322049201839803236482344990086418
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Discussion on Predxy
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52 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- WhaleWatch-78061 · 11 hours ago
bipbipbop spent 1363,90 Dollars on December 31 outcome Yes. Profit so far 273,04 Dollars. That position is printing money right now
- singkhamx · 5 days ago
This year ?
- m-trade · 9 days ago
oktober
- mkapepoela · 12 days ago
no time in september
- m8cur1y · 16 days ago
Not in September
- WillBeQuant · 17 days ago
september 30 is and was free money road show in 1 day makes no sense for maybe the biggest ipo of all time october will be rough as well if there is no ipo by mid november it will not happen this year
- 68thejjk68strong · 22 days ago
will immediately
- tiredhungry · 24 days ago
his market will immediately resolve to "No
- tiredhungry · 24 days ago
enen
- iForgor · 27 days ago
thin books wow
- ZarD · 27 days ago
8 sept S-1 public. Gives you enough time for a late September listing, verify your sources. Check also Starlink as a more recent example - you had ±20 days between S-1 and pricing. It is highly dependent on (1) the work done before during the TTW stage; (2) market sentiment and volatility (esp. if FED hikes or not)
- moonlore · 28 days ago
Alot of people not stating alot of facts atm this adminstration has been very corrupt on top of that market crash expected next month so if they dont ipo before 15 sept the market will start to decline and it will make trump look really bad so his best option is to keep pumping the stock market as there are no other major ipo happening in the next 3 months this is his only option and on top of that the ai market has finally slowed down and if the situation becomes any worse in america civil war is very likley but hey guys and gals he did start an illegal war and he did put illegal tarrifs and hes been blocking the files at every move he can so make your choice
- SIMOMEGA · 28 days ago
its not only about winrate
- mewmew1 · 29 days ago
look how odds moved
- polmar001 · last month
your winrate is only 66.3%, hard to trust ya
- mewmew1 · last month
no point to hurry
- anonymous · last month
Is that a guess? Labor day is sept 7
- mewmew1 · last month
10-15 sept s-1 public, around 15-20 oct listing
- cqk · last month
Entirely possible. But you very well might lose too, and you've put a lot of money on the line ;)
- mewmew1 · last month
u gonna lose it
As of Oct 2, 12:06 AM UTC