Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027? | Polymarket | 91% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 5 days agoBest bid 4% · best ask 4%
Top holders
- ZnotluvuiSamez67011482977279466154940850972585572311207926803952896052113224614375102184687
- GoriIIa72433435487515814631344400459815549868044734165082020724691045649454520502781
- NeH72433435487515814631344400459815549868044734165082020724691045649454520502781
- Joe-Biden67011482977279466154940850972585572311207926803952896052113224614375102184687
- ololololololololo72433435487515814631344400459815549868044734165082020724691045649454520502781
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
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Discussion on Predxy
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534 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- Bromley86 · 17 days ago
They never had the codes, and couldn't have maintained them anyway. They'd have been better off stealing some of the tactical nukes, but Russia secured those.
- abdoohl · 21 days ago
Ukraine should just let it go. Just like the gave up their nukes, so dumb n naive giving away their nukes! Had they opted to keep their nukes it would have been way easier to keep Crimea too, just sayin
- abdoohl · last month
Ukrainian astrologer prays to an icon of Zelensky —as well as to Bandera, Shukhevych, and other Nazis. She prays and performs bizarre rituals so that Ukraine gets more Patriot missiles and more "Flamingo" missiles to strike Russia.
- xew4w3345 · last month
I live in Moscow and want it to be a part of Norway or Zwitzerland. What are we gonna do?
- abdoohl · last month
prepare to lose your money!
- Shrill-Racer · last month
They're not... learn english
- Bromley86 · last month
This is what happens when 1 out of 11 gets through. And that was nearly a month ago.
- DrOetker · last month
THEIR NOT GETTING THE KRIM. GIVE ME MY DOLLAR!!!!!!!!
- 12beduins · last month
Ukraine so worthless, its really quite remarkable how worthless it is!
- 12beduins · last month
WATCH: Military recruitment officers in Kropyvnytskyi detained a taxi driver while he was working, despite the fact that he had a pre-booked appointment. The passenger was thrown out onto the street.
- pink.impala · last month
Is women's mobilization needed? If women have equal rights with men, then they should also have equal duties – equal duties to defend Ukraine, – says Ukrainian Armed Forces sergeant and squad leader Yulia Kobrynovych.
- JimScott1 · last month
Intercepting almost all missiles? Lying to yourself. Six people died. You and pink impala were not among the six people? Damn!
- JimScott1 · last month
Ukraine launched hundreds of drones across Russia on Sunday, killing at least six people in one of Kyiv's largest aerial attacks of the war.
- abdoohl · last month
Russian air defenses are already intercepting almost all Ukrainian Flamingo cruise missiles, reports the German publication Focus. 🦩 🦩 🦩
- JimScott1 · last month
BREAKING: Ukraine has carried out a series of long-range strikes in Russia, hitting a military airfield and a rocket centre that supports the Russian Starlink-style satellite internet network. GREAT!!!
- AlexB20 · 2 months ago
Why do u support Zelenskyy then? People in Crimea wants to be a part of Russia
- EnzoTheUser · 2 months ago
i know, j3ws already have plans for it, including flooding my country with 3rd world tr@sh
- pink.impala · 2 months ago
prepare to have your country turned to landlocked rump state!
- szivar.4 · 2 months ago
Thy should create a market for June 2027 and Dec 2027
- EnzoTheUser · 2 months ago
try to play Ukr music in russia, prison right away
As of Sep 29, 08:25 PM UTC