Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures. If finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period has not been published on the CME Group website within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the data published through all CME Group channels up to that point.
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Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
read Sep 29, 06:12 PM UTC
- Polymarketthis market
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures. If finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period has not been published on the CME Group website within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the data published through all CME Group channels up to that point.
554 holders · 38 comments · read Sep 28, 10:54 PM UTC
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 23 hours agoBest bid 90% · best ask 91%
Top holders
- Kris-Future89220876555191016916241799318314090743516702009053928118059298766028257434413
- lastminwin89220876555191016916241799318314090743516702009053928118059298766028257434413
- Avamax5513378025159191337704316460710043026668901636204511402381351948151562535480
- ThanksGivingTurkey10015513378025159191337704316460710043026668901636204511402381351948151562535480
- bitterfish5513378025159191337704316460710043026668901636204511402381351948151562535480
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL9%$3.823 hours ago
- SELL9%$7.5yesterday
- SELL9%$1.6yesterday
- BUY91%$4.6yesterday
- SELL9%$4.5yesterday
- SELL90%$1yesterday
Discussion on Predxy
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28 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- BondSeeker · 13 days ago
Sure Peneldo fan ;)
- jjjjok6666 · 13 days ago
agree
- ithinkthisisgod · 16 days ago
matter of time
- AXIOSinsider · 19 days ago
tick tock tick tock :(
- BondSeeker · 19 days ago
Free money
- luansha178 · 24 days ago
直接就是，大暴涨，你无法想象！！
- Grand-Wolf · 26 days ago
Crude oil all-time high at $3.1M total; polybro evidence scoring weighs OPEC notes, EIA reports, and shipping data for a grounded read.
- juliavivsiuk · 28 days ago
why only this dates?
- ThanksGivingTurkey1001 · last month
- ThanksGivingTurkey1001 · last month
- ThanksGivingTurkey1001 · last month
chad
- Liquid-Head · last month
It is, 12% free
- abdoohl · last month
US Treasury Secretary Bessent says "We've got a spike in oil prices today that I don't really understand."
- hyper-liquid-xyz · last month
US Treasury Secretary Bessent acts surprised as to why Trump's "Economic D-Day" announcement didn't crash oil prices as he hoped for. Well the market knows actions speak louder than words after hearing the same shit over and over again! Maybe if you raise rates to 10% then oil will crash however economy will crash!
- hyper-liquid-xyz · 2 months ago
US export ban will send WTI falling like crazy however will ensure global recession.
- anonymous · 2 months ago
Its not a bond
- ThanksGivingTurkey1001 · 2 months ago
bond good
- hyper-liquid-xyz · 2 months ago
They have WTI but why not Brent? IMO Brent should have been added at the start of the Iran war, and it has high interest since rest of world uses it.
- hyper-liquid-xyz · 2 months ago
August oil market - event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-august-2026
- pink.impala · 2 months ago
my mentor once told me to only comment in fast chats but i just didnt listen
As of Sep 29, 09:30 PM UTC