PolymarketOpen

Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

No92%

Yes9%

Price checked at Sep 29, 10:55 PM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$4.9K

Spread1%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	93% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	96% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	94% No	—	—	—	Open
Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	88% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	97% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	97% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	96% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	97% No	$435.5	—	—	Open
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	95% No	$50	—	—	Open
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	90% No	$34.2	—	—	Open
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	75% No	$32.1	—	—	Open
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	83% No	$15.8	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 14 hours ago

Holders37

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 91% · best ask 92%

Top holders

rpontici61757128120608771733552835332704477088308842448786650069343175538023650649159
chaosj8861757128120608771733552835332704477088308842448786650069343175538023650649159
planktonXD77096547471457228754716202763658104249783626912029037190572501783491346865537
mrmuller77096547471457228754716202763658104249783626912029037190572501783491346865537
1BTCis1BTC77096547471457228754716202763658104249783626912029037190572501783491346865537

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

SELL8%$22 days ago
SELL91%$1.65 days ago
BUY92%$18.46 days ago
SELL9%$3.56 days ago
SELL9%$2.16 days ago
SELL10%$26 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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As of Sep 29, 10:55 PM UTC