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Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

No84%

Yes17%

Price checked at Sep 29, 10:55 PM UTC

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24h volume$758.5

7d volume$1.3K

30d volume$9.6K

Liquidity$14.4K

Spread1%

ResolvesDec 31, 2026in 3 months

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Resolution rules

On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/ . This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
3 holders · read Sep 29, 09:00 PM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
192 holders · 4 comments · read Sep 27, 02:07 PM UTC

Venue activity

Read from the venue 2 days ago

Holders192

Held value—

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Comments4

Best bid 16% · best ask 17%

Top holders

ImJustKen51521497779380154558858664227546451933112892150984250255096573026768867177192
denizz84641922064827552827253311981339741860829640000680909725575149181637431473946
BondSeeker84641922064827552827253311981339741860829640000680909725575149181637431473946
BTCGambler24784641922064827552827253311981339741860829640000680909725575149181637431473946
eccho51521497779380154558858664227546451933112892150984250255096573026768867177192

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SELL83%$73 days ago
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Discussion on Predxy

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4 comments

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BondSeeker · 11 days ago
UAE already out, rest of the countries probably will wait for OPEC next move on quota before deciding to leave.
dsb · 5 months ago
an african country will leave OPEC this year in favor of american oil energy investment
kotil.eth · 5 months ago
opec üyesi 12 ülke var . bu bahis olası evet görünüyor.
Forthright-Gallery · 5 months ago
The UAE exit sets a precedent, but Kuwait and Iraq do not have the same freedom or economic diversification as the UAE. They are more vulnerable and more tied to Saudi Arabia’s orbit. While both are frustrated, a quick follow-on exit is unlikely in 2026 unless the Hormuz situation causes a total breakdown in OPEC+ cooperation.

As of Sep 29, 11:19 PM UTC