Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

No71%
Yes30%

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24h volume$85
7d volume$2.6K
30d volume$5.1K
Liquidity$13K
Spread6%
ResolvesJul 1, 2027in 9 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question →
Comparable, not identical. PredictFun and Polymarket specify fallback settlement based on the actual ballot if no candidate list is published, while Kalshi specifies official certification or confirmation by June 30, 2027. The venues also use slightly different settlement timestamps and sources, but these do not materially change the underlying question.
  • KalshiOpen →

    2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Will Gabriel Attal appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?

    If Gabriel Attal is officially certified, approved, or confirmed to appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election before Jun 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    read Sep 29, 08:04 PM UTC

  • Polymarketthis market

    Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

    The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    71 holders · 103 comments · read Sep 28, 09:14 PM UTC

  • PredictFunOpen →

    Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

    The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    read Sep 29, 05:13 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket85% NoOpen
Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket97% NoOpen
Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket56% YesOpen
Will François Ruffin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket73% NoOpen
Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket90% NoOpen
Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket83% YesOpen
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket69% NoOpen
Will Olivier Faure be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket89% NoOpen
Will Ségolène Royal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket95% NoOpen
Will Valérie Pécresse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket96% NoOpen
Will Michel Barnier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket94% NoOpen
Will François Bayrou be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket95% NoOpen
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket65% YesOpen
Will Clémentine Autain be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket99% NoOpen
Will Élisabeth Borne be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket93% NoOpen
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket95% NoOpen
Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket90% NoOpen
Will Jean Castex be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket96% NoOpen
Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket92% NoOpen
Will Gérald Darmanin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket98% NoOpen
Will Manuel Bompard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket94% NoOpen
Will Jean-Michel Fauvergue be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket93% NoOpen
Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket96% NoOpen
Will Bally Bagayoko be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket95% NoOpen
Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket93% NoOpen

Venue activity

Holders71
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
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Open interest—
Comments103

Best bid 21% · best ask 28%

Top holders

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Discussion on Predxy

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103 comments

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  • Xavnorge · 11 days ago

    D'où le bien nommé pseudo DontTrustMe !

  • DontTrustMe · 12 days ago

    J'essayais juste de bait les gens à faire monter Pigasse une dernière fois. 😔

  • Xavnorge · 12 days ago

    mais la primaire socialiste elle l'exclut 😁

  • DontTrustMe · 15 days ago

    He was polling higher, so it was seen as a democratic issue if he couldn't be candidate & he received a bit of help from centrists.

  • MoonShootBets · 15 days ago

    During the 2022 French presidential election, the Constitutional Council (Conseil constitutionnel) officially validated 741 sponsorships for Éric Zemmour.

  • DontTrustMe · 15 days ago

    Politiquement, il est d'une ringardise absolue, c'est clair. En matière d'ego et d'estime de soi néanmoins, il en surclasse beaucoup, à commencer par Ruffin. Il doit parfaitement réussir à se voir à l'Élysée, dictant les grandes lignes de la politique intérieure française et pleinement investi sur les sujets internationaux. Il aura 73 ans en 2027. C'est possiblement sa dernière vraie opportunité de revenir dans le jeu et de peser sur le cours des choses. Il y a toujours un marché pour des candidats au positionnement lâche et flou. Ni de droite, ni de gauche, humaniste ! Et gaulliste social qui plus est ! Lassalle fait plus de 1 million de voix en 2022 à base de « je suis un berger. » Macron lui se fait élire en 2017 à base de « en même temps. » Si la mayonnaise ne prend pas, revivre les frissons de 2002, jouer un rôle dans le barrage anti-RN, et pourquoi pas, être le candidat de premier tour sur lequel Mélenchon doit s'appuyer pour gagner le second... Ça doit lui convenir également. Après, je n'y crois pas dur comme fer. Mais ça s'imagine facilement.

  • Giorgio2 · 16 days ago

    En effet d'ailleurs je suis tombé sur un podcast de libé sur leur débat, et l'attelage avait l'air de faire bander Thomas Legrand. Pour moi Villepin est un has been qui a trouvé un moyen de squatter les plateaux de TV mais Ruffin a quand même un petit public s'il se présentait.

  • DontTrustMe · 16 days ago

    Si on oublie 5 secondes qu'ils sont médiocres et de gauche, l'alliance incongrue du bourgeois à particule vivant dans le XVIe avec le Robin des Bois de la Somme pour sauver la France et vaincre les injustices a son petit potentiel marketing. Tout les opposait mais le destin en a décidé autrement ! Digne des plus grands chefs d'oeuvre du cinéma français. Cela étant dit, une simple réunion n'engage à rien. On pourrait également imaginer qu'il s'agit juste de trouver un terrain d'entente concernant les parrainages (« Si tu te retires, tu me files tes parrainages, et vice versa. »).

  • Giorgio2 · 16 days ago

    Je trouverais ça ouf que Ruffin se rallie à Villepin qui a encore plus rien à dire que lui.

  • DontTrustMe · 18 days ago

    Du mal à voir François Ruffin aller au bout. Déjà parce qu'en se lançant extrêmement tôt, Mélenchon a asphyxié une bonne partie de l'espace politique autour de lui, rendant quasi-impossible pour Ruffin d'enclencher une dynamique. Ensuite parce que niveau parrainages et argent, il est limité. D'où son souhait de participer à une primaire avec le PS. Enfin parce qu'il doit avoir conscience qu'au fond de lui, il n'est pas vraiment fait pour ça. La logique politique voudrait qu'il se range derrière Fabien Roussel (qu'il le drague ouvertement) mais le Figaro rapporte aujourd'hui que son équipe a prévu de rencontrer celle de Dominique de Villepin dans les jours à venir afin d'« étudier un éventuel rapprochement programmatique et stratégique en vue de la présidentielle. ». Sachant que pour le coup, de Villepin lui, meurt d'envie d'y aller. À suivre.

  • DontTrustMe · 18 days ago

    Du mal à voir François Ruffin aller au bout. Déjà parce qu'en se lançant extrêmement tôt, Mélenchon a asphyxié une bonne partie de l'espace politique autour de lui, rendant quasi-impossible pour Ruffin d'enclencher une dynamique. Ensuite parce que niveau parrainages et argent, il est limité. D'où son souhait de participer à une primaire avec le PS. Enfin parce qu'il doit avoir conscience qu'au fond de lui, il n'est pas vraiment fait pour ça. La logique politique voudrait qu'il se range derrière Fabien Roussel (que ce dernier drague ouvertement) mais le Figaro rapporte aujourd'hui que son équipe a prévu de rencontrer celle de Dominique de Villepin dans les jours à venir afin d'« étudier un éventuel rapprochement programmatique et stratégique en vue de la présidentielle. ». Sachant que pour le coup, de Villepin lui, meurt d'envie d'y aller. À suivre.

  • PascalPro · 21 days ago

    Incroyable ce marché

  • DontTrustMe · 25 days ago

    Ça n'a rien de gravé dans le marbre en réalité + pour Reconquête, le risque concernant les parrainages existe.

  • Vusion · 25 days ago

    argent gratuit

  • MoonShootBets · 26 days ago

    (AFP) – Eric Zemmour a indiqué jeudi qu'il comptait annoncer sa candidature à l'élection présidentielle 2027 "avant décembre", semblant ainsi écarter une candidature de sa compagne Sarah Knafo, la très médiatique vice-présidente de son parti d'extrême droite Reconquête.

  • Poivre · 28 days ago

    Pourquoi pas, t'as plein de noms dans la liste ils sont même pas candidat

  • DontTrustMe · 28 days ago

    Je sais oui. Il était très proche de pouvoir se présenter. Sur Wikipédia, il est même rapporté une rumeur selon laquelle il aurait pu : « Quelques jours après la clôture des dépôts de parrainages, Le Canard enchaîné affirme, sur la base d'un témoignage anonyme d'un proche de Dominique de Villepin, que ce dernier avait assez de signatures mais qu'il avait renoncé par peur d'un score trop faible lors des élections. Son parti, par l'intermédiaire de Brigitte Girardin, dément catégoriquement. »

  • Fuentes31 · 29 days ago

    On devrait ajouter Natacha Polony...

  • Poivre · 29 days ago

    On devrait ajouter Anasse Kazib, il est à nouveau officiellement candidat pour 2027, il avait reçu 160 parrainages en 2022 en concurrençant ceux de Poutou (qui n'est plus candidat). Ne pas sous-estimer les trotkistes.

  • Poivre · 29 days ago

    En 2012 aussi il en avait des centaines après

As of Sep 29, 10:11 PM UTC