PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will Mike Johnson be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?

No92%

Yes8%

Price checked at Sep 29, 11:45 PM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$1.9K

Spread7%

ResolvesNov 4, 2026next month

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. Polymarket primarily uses official House information, with credible reporting as a fallback; Kalshi permits accelerated determination after a media consensus projects the winner. Their listed resolution times also differ, but this does not change the underlying question.

Polymarketthis market
Will Mike Johnson be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
11 holders · 1 comments · read Sep 26, 02:43 AM UTC
KalshiOpen →
120th Congress: Who will be elected Speaker of the House?: Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? Mike Johnson
If Mike Johnson wins the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
read Sep 29, 11:41 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?	Polymarket	79% Yes	—	—	—	Open
Will Pete Aguilar be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?	Polymarket	96% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Katherine Clark be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?	Polymarket	96% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Steve Scalise be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?	Polymarket	96% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Jim Jordan be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?	Polymarket	96% No	$0.5	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 4 days ago

Holders11

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments1

Best bid 89% · best ask 96%

Top holders

0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296664984716275844618185687031455524125170676916765499556888462672857925176663739
cry.eth279308990186780566121269482401821582024623237811948918308559146816206234956497
AJSV79308990186780566121269482401821582024623237811948918308559146816206234956497
Numitus199479308990186780566121269482401821582024623237811948918308559146816206234956497
nc3iceibvtvetvbt79308990186780566121269482401821582024623237811948918308559146816206234956497

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

BUY88%$4.49 days ago
BUY17%$1.12 months ago
BUY15%$1.22 months ago
BUY90%$18.92 months ago
BUY26%$2.12 months ago
BUY23%$1.22 months ago

Discussion on Predxy

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1 comment

From Polymarket's own thread

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.

SingletonFamilyFund · 3 months ago
Jeffries’ Speaker bid becomes more endangered the smaller his majority is in the 120th House, as the growing ranks of the Squad are able to exert more influence over close votes

As of Sep 29, 11:49 PM UTC