KalshiOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

120th Congress: Who will be elected Speaker of the House?: Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? Mike Johnson

No88%

Mike Johnson12%

Price checked at Sep 29, 11:04 PM UTC

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24h volume$0

7d volume—

30d volume—

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Spread1%

ResolvesJan 3, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Mike Johnson wins the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. Polymarket primarily uses official House information, with credible reporting as a fallback; Kalshi permits accelerated determination after a media consensus projects the winner. Their listed resolution times also differ, but this does not change the underlying question.

PolymarketOpen →
Will Mike Johnson be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
11 holders · 1 comments · read Sep 26, 02:43 AM UTC
Kalshithis market
120th Congress: Who will be elected Speaker of the House?: Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? Mike Johnson
If Mike Johnson wins the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
read Sep 29, 08:16 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
120th Congress: Who will be elected Speaker of the House?: Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? Tom Emmer	Kalshi	97% No	$0	—	—	Open
120th Congress: Who will be elected Speaker of the House?: Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? Steve Scalise	Kalshi	99% No	$0	—	—	Open
120th Congress: Who will be elected Speaker of the House?: Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? Katherine Clark	Kalshi	99% No	$0	—	—	Open
120th Congress: Who will be elected Speaker of the House?: Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? Hakeem Jeffries	Kalshi	84% Hakeem Jeffries	$0	—	—	Open
120th Congress: Who will be elected Speaker of the House?: Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? Pete Aguilar	Kalshi	99% No	$0	—	—	Open
120th Congress: Who will be elected Speaker of the House?: Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? Jim Jordan	Kalshi	99% No	$0	—	—	Open

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Read from the venue 3 hours ago

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As of Sep 29, 11:23 PM UTC