PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will Steve Scalise be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?

No96%

Yes4%

Price checked at Sep 29, 08:22 PM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$11.2K

Spread5%

ResolvesNov 4, 2026next month

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. Polymarket specifies official House information as its primary source, with credible reporting as a possible fallback; Kalshi permits accelerated determination after a media consensus projection. These are resolution-method differences, not differences in the underlying question.

Polymarketthis market
Will Steve Scalise be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
8 holders · 1 comments · read Sep 25, 04:21 PM UTC
KalshiOpen →
120th Congress: Who will be elected Speaker of the House?: Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? Steve Scalise
If Steve Scalise wins the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
read Sep 29, 07:25 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?	Polymarket	79% Yes	—	—	—	Open
Will Pete Aguilar be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?	Polymarket	96% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Katherine Clark be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?	Polymarket	96% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Mike Johnson be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?	Polymarket	92% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Jim Jordan be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?	Polymarket	96% No	$0.5	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 4 days ago

Holders8

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments1

Top holders

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cry.eth2635444045388325075465307713452201870241833919066435595423603599085042786291
AJSV635444045388325075465307713452201870241833919066435595423603599085042786291
nc3iceibvtvetvbt635444045388325075465307713452201870241833919066435595423603599085042786291
planktonXD635444045388325075465307713452201870241833919066435595423603599085042786291

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Discussion on Predxy

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1 comment

From Polymarket's own thread

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SingletonFamilyFund · 3 months ago
Jeffries’ Speaker bid becomes more endangered the smaller his majority is in the 120th House, as the growing ranks of the Squad are able to exert more influence over close votes

As of Sep 29, 08:34 PM UTC