Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
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Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue activity
Read from the venue 7 days agoBest bid 8% · best ask 9%
Top holders
- xenonliu87850909193045738838122335421864882591058306864355996635087468790857601428462
- Imperfect-Council29025488225813526669599040222477073683559999116743837274144475701987306415711
- BlackswanDefi29025488225813526669599040222477073683559999116743837274144475701987306415711
- Threadbare-Signal29025488225813526669599040222477073683559999116743837274144475701987306415711
- BarryandLarrytradiing29025488225813526669599040222477073683559999116743837274144475701987306415711
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- BUY92%$5.87 days ago
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- BUY92%$817 days ago
- BUY92%$7.37 days ago
- BUY92%$1.17 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
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As of Sep 29, 09:05 PM UTC