Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
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Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue activity
Read from the venue 19 hours agoBest bid 87% · best ask 88%
Top holders
- winforretire32952048155093419718055060819712841482842350791391116195205201413217889733414
- bysittingnottrading32952048155093419718055060819712841482842350791391116195205201413217889733414
- comon11999308764485765552888542373236405354280486342174935314281037215048612491168324
- TheLakeside99308764485765552888542373236405354280486342174935314281037215048612491168324
- Threadbare-Signal99308764485765552888542373236405354280486342174935314281037215048612491168324
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL12%$420 hours ago
- BUY13%$4.321 hours ago
- SELL12%$4.221 hours ago
- SELL12%$36021 hours ago
- BUY13%$4.621 hours ago
- BUY88%$2.623 hours ago
Discussion on Predxy
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As of Oct 1, 01:49 PM UTC