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PolymarketOpen

Iran leadership change by December 31?

No89%
Yes12%

Price checked at

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24h volume$38.2K
7d volume$186.1K
30d volume$625.4K
Liquidity$130.1K
Spread1%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Iran leadership change by September 30?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Iran leadership change by October 31?Polymarket98% NoOpen
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?Polymarket78% NoOpen
Iran leadership change by November 30?Polymarket95% NoOpen

Venue activity

Holders1.4K
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments991

Best bid 11% · best ask 12%

Top holders

  • stupid2260499458684380641857666641513383149627633695110197406276308452075860198022694
  • Amrosein18652479948917565296149340091675894865339012333173025944893512396354173886674
  • classified18652479948917565296149340091675894865339012333173025944893512396354173886674
  • 3.3.318652479948917565296149340091675894865339012333173025944893512396354173886674
  • Llalalala60499458684380641857666641513383149627633695110197406276308452075860198022694

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • BUY89%$83 days ago
  • BUY89%$30.93 days ago
  • BUY12%$9.23 days ago
  • BUY89%$18.33 days ago
  • BUY12%$5.53 days ago
  • BUY11%$5.1K3 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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991 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • David.Brown19 · 11 days ago

    prediсuе flagged low confidence on a signal today. i didn't enter. market crashed against everyone. thanks for being honest

  • 12beduins · 12 days ago

  • Jatheripper · 15 days ago

    good luck killing the dead

  • abdoohl · 19 days ago

  • Robbb · 2 months ago

    lol

  • Prickly-Passport · 2 months ago

    Breaking:Mojtaba waked up !

  • altdel · 2 months ago

    As always, just Iranian rumors. Take advantage while others are selling.

  • Mikelious · 2 months ago

    BREAKING 🔴 Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is in extremely critical condition and could pass away at any moment, two sources close to the Pezeshkian administration told IranWire.

  • NOIZYUV · 2 months ago

    Mojtaba Khamenei's father-in-law, former Iranian Parliament Speaker Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, in an interview with the Iranian IRNA agency: "For certain reasons, he is not in contact with any entity or person, hoping that he is healthy"

  • Zubumafu · 2 months ago

    Better sell those 6K bro, they can't hide the fact that their leader is dead forever

  • Treedud25 · 2 months ago

    Already over

  • PMTraderAdam · 2 months ago

    In the city, 'member used to drive a Yukon

  • Laurenman · 2 months ago

    Fact.

  • GollumGekko · 2 months ago

    the dead cannot die

  • Zubumafu · 2 months ago

    They will keep him as Zombie leader for the next 2-3 months and then replace him

  • Zubumafu · 2 months ago

    He is likely dead, and if not, he will get assassinated, Trump is sick of him

  • anonymous · 2 months ago

    Can a dead person be a de facto leader? What would Saul Kripke think of this?

  • NOIZYUV · 2 months ago

    The Saudi channel Al-Hadath claims, citing an Israeli security source: "Mojtaba Khamenei is not in Iran."

  • NOIZYUV · 3 months ago

    As a ghost maybe

  • Zubumafu · 3 months ago

    Yeah that one is free money, just sucks that it's going to be a while until we receive it

As of Sep 29, 10:15 PM UTC