Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
Price checked at
Prices have not been checked within the last hour.
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
No recorded data before Sep 24 in this window.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue activity
Read from the venue this minuteDiscussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
As of Nov 1, 11:45 AM UTC