Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” “Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model. A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify. The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price. Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs. The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue activity
Read from the venue last monthBest bid 86% · best ask 89%
Top holders
- Nevermarginal96076518431843920442292630367661417212274890671660279177527169049762638545307
- Lk760060953331900594527342588678000792388561050488042651109447945133897657984403462
- mylee3196076518431843920442292630367661417212274890671660279177527169049762638545307
- tywed60953331900594527342588678000792388561050488042651109447945133897657984403462
- fatwang296076518431843920442292630367661417212274890671660279177527169049762638545307
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15 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- Our-Inhibition · 3 months ago
The car doesn't even have to work!
- Our-Inhibition · 3 months ago
According to these terms the vehicle does not have to work! So, if I am not wrong, he could produce 10 "signature collectors" models, sign the dashboard, and sell them cheap. Aren't there basic standards that a car has to meet to be on the road?
- Illustrious-Currant · 5 months ago
pls elon musk or at least drop FSD 14 lite for HW3 brokies
- Illustrious-Currant · 5 months ago
Lemme trade in my 2023 tesla for a cybercab just give me a wheel pls
- polymark · 5 months ago
Okay now im super bullish on this (especially at 24% Yes) Theyre making a version with removable steering wheel & pedals to satisfy regulators & its already in production. This version should still be priced below 30k because Cybercabs are Steer by Wire. Not only is Cybercab important for robotaxis but the version with steering wheel is Tesla's response to China's low cost EVs. I think its coming 2026, barring some black swan production issues. They cant be producing them already and not sell them as they're wasting money. The steering wheel + pedals shows theyre focused on getting it out asap and willing to make adjustments to do so.
- polymark · 5 months ago
Elon's response was in February, earlier this year & all they need it to sell it to one customer for the market to resolve Yes. "While the first Cybercab has been produced at Giga Texas, it would not be surprising if the following months will only see low volumes of the autonomous two seater being produced. As per Elon Musk in previous comments, the Cybercab’s early production will likely be slow, but it will eventually be extremely fast. “For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so the early production rate will be agonizingly slow, but eventually end up being insanely fast,” he said.
- polymark · 5 months ago
hmm: "Apart from riding jokes about MKBHD’s wager, Musk also confirmed that Tesla will be selling a Cybercab to regular consumers before 2027, and the vehicle will be priced for $30,000 or less. In response to an X user who asked if the exact scenario will be happening, Musk responded with a simple “Yes.”
- JewedGambler · 6 months ago
Hi
- CalOne1 · 6 months ago
It's just a single one
- Yellow-Annual · 8 months ago
So Musk could sell ONE to his close friend? This should be based on Tesla opens orders of Cybercab vehicle to the general public at a base price of $30,000 USD or less AND delivers at least one to the general public (excluding close friends and family, employees, and large investors).
- brauny · 9 months ago
yes believe mr roadster
- 1954141 · 9 months ago
[link removed]
- Roxanno · 9 months ago
Tesla targets ~$25–30k long-term, but current Cybercab unveil showed premium design + robotaxi focus.
- degenatoooor · 9 months ago
what if he "buys" 1 himself?
- DeverNoom · 9 months ago
yes because elon want to see mkbhd bald
As of Nov 1, 11:41 AM UTC