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PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

No97%
Yes3%

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24h volume$6K
7d volume$82.3K
30d volume$259.2K
Liquidity$78.1K
Spread0%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.

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  • Polymarketthis market

    Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.

    1.9K holders · 82 comments · read Sep 27, 09:22 PM UTC

  • OpinionOpen →

    Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction between January 1st, 2026 00:00 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.

    read Sep 30, 12:12 AM UTC

Venue activity

Holders1.9K
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments72

Best bid 3% · best ask 4%

Top holders

  • LucasMeow69471008782374192790909758203453762302247599306255707151301915677252063291760
  • Bumblefrog112007327373263623178671509828927834172092799802464528122988153704237637965568
  • kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk112007327373263623178671509828927834172092799802464528122988153704237637965568
  • sumipumi777112007327373263623178671509828927834172092799802464528122988153704237637965568
  • 765g567112007327373263623178671509828927834172092799802464528122988153704237637965568

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • BUY97%$92 days ago
  • BUY97%$62 days ago
  • BUY97%$233 days ago
  • BUY97%$243 days ago
  • BUY97%$243 days ago
  • BUY97%$223 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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72 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • .kalvaxio · 14 days ago

    wrote "find sybils earn bounties" and got it, smiled at my phone like an idiot

  • Well-Documented-Theory · 23 days ago

    NO FOR 2026 2027 2028.....

  • ponczyk · last month

    nice bond...

  • vladovaella2 · last month

    how

  • perpcode0072nell · 2 months ago

    a bond

  • STANIS11 · 2 months ago

    never move because $ = no sens btc sats msats have sense

  • maimaiaaa · 2 months ago

    Interesting point on the market probability. Which input would change your view first?

  • wei yi · 2 months ago

    from his early

  • imHoang · 2 months ago

    с твоей ставкой можно вообще не думать о выйгрыше

  • Btc · 2 months ago

    NO NO NO

  • ALL-in-GG · 2 months ago

    he forgot the password

  • AndyBurnham · 2 months ago

    ok

  • Ginsu2000 · 2 months ago

    That is my intention

  • SIMOMEGA · 3 months ago

    the source is that he made it the fuck up

  • SIMOMEGA · 3 months ago

    yet u have no shares as of now, lmao

  • SIMOMEGA · 3 months ago

    you dont say

  • vbn87 · 3 months ago

    The odds strongly favor Satoshi making no Bitcoin transfers from his early mining addresses in 2026.

  • MunichWeatherFrog · 3 months ago

    what is this market

  • goodmorningsuuu · 3 months ago

    he ded

  • gjj7tbmkk763ggg · 3 months ago

    If Satoshi wakes up on June 30, 2026, subscribe to my X com

As of Sep 30, 12:31 AM UTC