Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
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Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue activity
Read from the venue 2 days agoBest bid 15% · best ask 16%
Top holders
- Detailed-Lip72095897215599895681149701722606364539867186803340437295210002622844727571825
- Intern.19521088970261367195201520366397988280996640521852307176239892442414361500298
- cowcat19521088970261367195201520366397988280996640521852307176239892442414361500298
- LJa7io23MCv954j72095897215599895681149701722606364539867186803340437295210002622844727571825
- paddaa72095897215599895681149701722606364539867186803340437295210002622844727571825
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- BUY16%$52 days ago
- BUY16%$272 days ago
- SELL84%$0.82 days ago
- SELL84%$842 days ago
- SELL84%$842 days ago
- SELL84%$1.12 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
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69 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- Impassioned-Light · 13 days ago
In one month
- SamirPRO1 · 13 days ago
when does the 60 days end?
- paddaa · 2 months ago
no
- Nobbler · 2 months ago
The communist regime's got 60 days left, and that piece of trash Díaz-Canel singao is going down with it. Mark my words.
- Zenith-Nadir · 3 months ago
Govt now opening up to capitalism, he's going to stay for a while
- ItsRigg3d · 5 months ago
Khamenei and Maduro figured it out, I suppose.
- NoClueAtAll · 5 months ago
US munitions and reputation depleted in Iran, which after 47 years of Mullah rule was supposed to be easy pickings but continues fighting a war in which it was "defeated" several times and whose non-existent missiles and drones shut the Strait of Hormuz at will. Lemme guess, Cuba, ruled by a Communist party for 67 years, is also easy pickings, after having survived the Cuban Missile crisis, the Bay of Pigs invasion and ongoing embargoes. What could possibly go wrong?
- BuiAE · 5 months ago
Because Trump never lies about when he's going to do stuff 😉
- AJLibra · 5 months ago
Literaly Trump said that before June he will "visit" Cuba
- SuckMyDicck · 5 months ago
I think military action or diplomatic meeting will start after Trump visiting China this month - this is key signal instructing how cuba affairs will be
- ItsRigg3d · 5 months ago
Trump sent the USS Lincoln to Cuba 🌚
- matteorenzi · 5 months ago
he is effectively out then
- ItsRigg3d · 5 months ago
US Senate blocks bid to stop Trump using military against Cuba | Donald Trump News | Al Jazeera [link removed]
- smaIIfish · 5 months ago
-20k
- ItsRigg3d · 5 months ago
Odds are they're right next after Iran.
- toutiege · 5 months ago
It might happen, but it's unlikely to happen this year.
- ItsRigg3d · 5 months ago
One blockade of crude imports and the country collapses. Rubio/Trump want to transition Cuba into a free nation and Miguel is in the way.
- toutiege · 5 months ago
Cuba is a good brother of China, and its top leadership is quite stable. Unless the US dares to launch a military strike, a change of regime is unlikely.
- ItsRigg3d · 6 months ago
Yup
- mvx · 6 months ago
Market about to flip.
As of Sep 29, 11:29 PM UTC