Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
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Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Venue activity
Read from the venue 4 days agoBest bid 6% · best ask 7%
Top holders
- Threadbare-Signal1291454874125024564913411658636854434792972068510027777552181749936579562639
- eeelliot1291454874125024564913411658636854434792972068510027777552181749936579562639
- aenews21291454874125024564913411658636854434792972068510027777552181749936579562639
- Erasmus.46036307473347147486878725188057240439237346445231099615680388314304154599904
- trumpishonest46036307473347147486878725188057240439237346445231099615680388314304154599904
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL5%$04 days ago
- SELL93%$6514 days ago
- BUY6%$4504 days ago
- BUY7%$8.14 days ago
- BUY95%$3.8K4 days ago
- BUY6%$104 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
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66 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- WillBeQuant · 14 days ago
Aenews what you doing on the yes side here ?
- WillBeQuant · 14 days ago
everybody that says this wants to sell you some bs only thing you can do is watch what top dogs in the leaderboard trade and do you own analysis copytrading never works
- whalterwhite · 29 days ago
from who?
- Stunning-Cloves · 2 months ago
Half of cuba is filled with soldiers who would kill any navy member, marine etc. the other half is tired of living in a system where the united states is preventing them from getting basic necessities
- oldecho1099 · 2 months ago
copy trading is the way.
- Stunning-Cloves · 2 months ago
The united States is blocking essential electricity to hospitals and old people homes. A lot of people are dying.
- BillyRios · 4 months ago
Buying yes at 23c
- Morphias · 4 months ago
Invade? probably yes. Take control over the country? Definitely Not. The wording on this market is clear.
- LuHuLu · 4 months ago
The biggest reason why trump wouldn't dare invade cuba is because cuba might throw a couple missiles back at florida before ultimately succumbing; and if any of those missiles land, trump's popularity goes in the toilet.
- 💰💰 · 4 months ago
fake news
- aenews2 · 4 months ago
Cuba has begun distributing weapons to civilians and urging citizens to prepare for a possible foreign invasion - CNN
- hlghwayman · 4 months ago
Looks like diplomatic avenues are progressing? Cuban regime is much more complicated than Venezuela. Not only from a political perspective, but militarily too. The last time the US invaded a foreign island was in 1983.
- kevtp · 4 months ago
It would count as an invasion if the soldier is there to establish control over the territory, and is not going to count if it's just a raid to inflict damage or kidnap someone, for instance. The smaller the force, and the shorter the stay on Cuban territory (just hours for instance), the less likely it will count as an invasion.
- WatchMeMakeIt · 4 months ago
just as a clarification, does a shit helicopter landing 1 soldier on the ground count as an invasion? because they aready scammed us on the shitty iran market, which gain, theres no proof of what actually happened there but they counted it as a yes the bastards
- hugeinjapan · 4 months ago
[link removed]
- aenews2 · 4 months ago
If they hold territory, it would. Maduro did not.
- outkvst · 4 months ago
JUST IN: US deploys aircraft carrier to the Caribbean as tensions with Cuba rise.
- Inchoroi · 5 months ago
Does a Madr=ura-style kidnapping count a an invasion? Technically they controlled his compound when they grabbed him
- Black-Filth · 5 months ago
Cuba's Energy Minister Vicente de la O Levy confirmed the country has exhausted all diesel and fuel oil reserves, with only limited domestic natural gas remaining for power generation. America Will Save Them lol🤭
- paddaa · 5 months ago
what are they even gonna invade
As of Sep 29, 08:25 PM UTC