US strike on Cuba by December 31?
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Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Venue activity
Read from the venue yesterdayBest bid 84% · best ask 86%
Top holders
- Threadbare-Signal91347242536105459969213788769929618447748782724898414007495579710952664644740
- Jan77755782999195478978645683058282751482473275270795090145277907596121415418369349
- de5nuts91347242536105459969213788769929618447748782724898414007495579710952664644740
- Anjun55782999195478978645683058282751482473275270795090145277907596121415418369349
- StudentMoney55782999195478978645683058282751482473275270795090145277907596121415418369349
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- BUY15%$1002 days ago
- BUY16%$162 days ago
- SELL85%$19.52 days ago
- SELL14%$43.82 days ago
- SELL85%$0.12 days ago
- BUY86%$12 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
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90 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- Second-Hand-Bend · 29 days ago
Curious what you're watching here—would a confirmed U.S. strike on Cuban soil be the key trigger for you, or are there specific Cuba/Venezuela news catalysts that would change your view?
- Second-Hand-Bend · 29 days ago
Jokes aside, I’d focus on official U.S. statements, naval/air deployments, and any Cuba/Venezuela escalation before moving this much on headlines.
- Second-Hand-Bend · 29 days ago
What evidence or catalyst would change your view before Dec 31?
- phd-in-tradeology · last month
I would start by looking for your mom
- Second-Hand-Bend · last month
@phd-in-tradeology with Yes around 16¢ on this US strike-on-Cuba-by-Dec-31 market, what indicators would you watch for a real timeline shift—official warnings, naval movements, or Cuba/Venezuela escalation?
- beksaid072 · last month
is it real??
- Whole-Producer · 2 months ago
Thing is Cuba wasnt even supposed to be communist it was forced by horrible embargo caused by the United States which led to a strong relationship with the soviet Union watch any fidel castro early interview and he said he was not communist.
- crystalball12 · 2 months ago
if it were up to me I'd lift the blockade against Cuba but I seriously doubt my 50 dollar bet has any impact on that policy enacted by the US
- Whole-Producer · 2 months ago
It should be 0% never pray on the downfall of a population thats suffering you will lose your bags and you should feel like a piece of shit for thinking that you are better then other humans. Haha fucking loserrrr
- Relaccsed · 2 months ago
hell nawh.
- crystalball12 · 2 months ago
24% is still too high lmao, it should be >10%
- Stable-Antecedent · 2 months ago
Get in there Trump! Get those commie bastards, the cubans are dreaming for a change. Give them democracy you old fart
- Stable-Antecedent · 2 months ago
you will sock him? That sounds pretty gay. Also its not Trumps fault there has been no free elections in Cuba since Castro-mafia took power.
- Relaccsed · 2 months ago
Retard. Volume isn’t investment.
- Stunning-Cloves · 2 months ago
dudes 2 million investiment only made him 14 k youre an idiot honestly. Gambling addict lowlife fuck.
- Stunning-Cloves · 2 months ago
The united States is blocking essential electricity to hospitals and old people homes. A lot of people are dying. Bro if i ever find out who you are i will fucking sock you
- Stunning-Cloves · 2 months ago
The united States is blocking essential electricity to hospitals and old people homes. A lot of people are dying. I cant wait to see marines getting ambushed and slaughtered by the guerillas down there.
- Relaccsed · 3 months ago
Trump its not so funny anymore please attack
- Relaccsed · 3 months ago
dear trumptito, please strike cuba to save my bags. Thank you.
- Relaccsed · 3 months ago
its comin'
As of Sep 29, 09:15 PM UTC