Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
The same question elsewhere
3 venues carry it- Polymarketthis market
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
332 holders · 447 comments · read Sep 21, 05:21 PM UTC
- LimitlessOpen →
Venezuela leader end of 2026: No Head of State
Additional context — Updated August 25, 2026 Per the rules, “officially holds” refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. As of this clarification, The UN-recognized government of Venezuela has not formally removed or replaced Nicolás Maduro as President, and official government sources and statements continue to identify him as the President of Venezuela. Temporary legal measures assigning the exercise of presidential powers do not, on their own, constitute a transfer of the presidency. This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa ). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
0 holders · read Sep 29, 07:46 PM UTC
- OpinionOpen →
Venezuela leader end of 2026 — No Head of State
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
read Sep 29, 09:50 PM UTC
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.Venue activity
Read from the venue 8 days agoBest bid 99% · best ask 100%
Top holders
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296613707761272063185033084273997321282553232999497653452620386294915179257041056
- 1112217704927682411404638982382980949594324217253655714867278953651574552110090318
- Teeming-Angora17704927682411404638982382980949594324217253655714867278953651574552110090318
- chudhunter17704927682411404638982382980949594324217253655714867278953651574552110090318
- Yelowyolo17704927682411404638982382980949594324217253655714867278953651574552110090318
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- BUY100%$40.68 days ago
- BUY100%$147.68 days ago
- BUY100%$19.98 days ago
- BUY100%$29.98 days ago
- SELL0%$08 days ago
- SELL0%$0.18 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
433 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- Hiworld. · 2 days ago
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
- GenaCyberpunk · 4 days ago
I'm not saying this market will resolve to yes, after all the hivemind has reached consensus, what I'm saying is that this is extremely unfair, because nothing can be enough to satisfy the Maduro side, and also goes against reality.
- GenaCyberpunk · 4 days ago
It's not just the UN but starting this summer and after clarification the Venezuelan courts, the office of the President and the Ministry of exteriors started calling Delcy Presidente de la Republica (without the "E") and Head of State. I have all of it documented (ping me on Disc).
- Hiworld. · 6 days ago
😂
- Creative-Alcove · 6 days ago
The fact: Donald trump In paper: Nicolas maduro Puppet: Delcy rodriguez -Venezuelan
- bigticketchicken · 6 days ago
El Donaldo Trumpo
- GenaTheBondKilIer · 6 days ago
You think you are helping but you are not
- GenaTheBondKilIer · 6 days ago
Thats not correct, they no longer call her Encargada plus the courts call her head of State. Ive been sharing all this on Poly Disocord, the only reason Maduro is winning is some people think clarifications are immutable
- ZZ-TIC-M1 · 6 days ago
Can a real Venezuelan please tell me who is currently the head of your government?
- Hiworld. · 6 days ago
Government of Venezuela: Delcy = Presidenta Encargada UN:Delcy = HEAD OF STATE Polymarket: Maduro 🤮
- GenaTheBondKilIer · 6 days ago
Sucks being at the same side than the idiots, its always a bad omen
- Hiworld. · 6 days ago
Delcy is guaranteed to win!🫡
- jepper · 6 days ago
Tribunal Supremo de Justicia (Venezuelan Supreme Court), RESOLUCIÓN Nº 2026-0005 (5 Aug 2026): "Que la Presidenta de la República, Doctora Delcy Rodríguez Gómez, ***en su condición de Jefa de Estado***...."
- jepper · 6 days ago
read the rules: "This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state" H E A D O F S T A T E. Who's the head of state? UN answer: It's Delcy. Official venezuelan government answer (venezuelan supreme court, RESOLUCIÓN Nº 2026-0005): "Que la Presidenta de la República, Doctora Delcy Rodríguez Gómez, en su condición de Jefa de Estado".
- ZZ-TIC-M1 · 6 days ago
Presidenta Encargada de la República Bolivariana de Venezuela. E-N-C-A-R-G-A-D-A
- Dettl4ff · 6 days ago
It doesn't matter. Read the rules. She is the president. Vaneswella's government recognizes her in this position.
- ZZ-TIC-M1 · 7 days ago
Maduro being ousted is certain, so the result should be NO. This can be seen from the fact that the UN has already removed Maduro from the list. It is also clear that Delcy is an acting president rather than the president, since she has not gone through an election. So I lean toward the outcome being that there is no official leader.😀
- jepper · 8 days ago
Hey Cat what made you change your mind you used to be a pro maduro whale
- Car · 8 days ago
Im the president
- Witty-Birch · 8 days ago
Venezuela's acting president landed in New York today for the 81st General Assembly, and she addresses the Assembly Thursday Sept 24. Per MercoPress (Sept 21): "In the UN's official document, Rodríguez is listed as head of state, a protocol designation that formalises her standing with the organisation." She meets Trump Tuesday. Undervalues anywhere below 0.8
As of Sep 29, 09:58 PM UTC