Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+) Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
Venue activity
Read from the venue 8 days agoBest bid 17% · best ask 19%
Top holders
- Threadbare-Signal71744692901577421545451269158676141112520713445314804579626851509414309350462
- denizz86831555216352607458811867018842097191310281105831909967661155990095395482445
- justme00386831555216352607458811867018842097191310281105831909967661155990095395482445
- TAIWANNUMBERONE71744692901577421545451269158676141112520713445314804579626851509414309350462
- Roflan-ludoman71744692901577421545451269158676141112520713445314804579626851509414309350462
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL17%$117.68 days ago
- BUY19%$46.78 days ago
- SELL17%$8.58 days ago
- SELL17%$80.68 days ago
- SELL81%$9.38 days ago
- BUY18%$12.88 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
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As of Sep 29, 11:41 PM UTC