PolymarketOpen

Natural Disaster in 2026?

No95%

Yes6%

Price checked at Nov 1, 09:53 AM UTC

Prices have not been checked within the last hour.

Trade

Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country

Opens the venue in a new tab, through Predxy.

24h volume$810

7d volume$1.8K

30d volume$5.2K

Liquidity$1.2K

Spread5%

ResolvesMar 1, 2027in 4 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

Drag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom

Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf

Venue activity

Read from the venue 13 days ago

Holders443

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments17

Best bid 5% · best ask 11%

Top holders

zin51p3029562585062734671915107793115526294897334591050692289098351457189383153489
0x79a14b2a3eddd65296f6a85158d7eaf1491734b5101585409159496530633179743726445266550257884783684157888874008441092798859191
usurper553029562585062734671915107793115526294897334591050692289098351457189383153489
ourdemocracy23029562585062734671915107793115526294897334591050692289098351457189383153489
Political-Baobab3029562585062734671915107793115526294897334591050692289098351457189383153489

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

SELL4%$1314 days ago
SELL6%$114 days ago
SELL8%$415 days ago
BUY8%$216 days ago
BUY90%$5016 days ago
SELL8%$416 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.

Nobody has said anything here yet.

17 comments

From Polymarket's own thread

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.

usurper55 · 3 months ago
no liquidity
Bugblatter · 3 months ago
What is with the weird spikes in this market. I'm a data engineer working in Insuretech and find these moves baffling. I'm not seeing anything in the day job that justifies Yes above 20%, especially as we are now in August and there are Poisson processes.
Mogger7 · 4 months ago
venezuela earthquake accured
Thegreench · 4 months ago
Sorry but we have a 6 catastrophe in one day what you waiting for paye people now ???? Lil bitch
KratosGodofWar33 · 4 months ago
Ahh I see, thanks !
Darling-Migration · 4 months ago
Strenght was 7,5. It's big but rules of this bet are insanely high for each item.
KratosGodofWar33 · 4 months ago
venezuela ??
.lavero · 5 months ago
you know where is drop?
KratosGodofWar33 · 5 months ago
PHILLPINES EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI ! NOW HAPPENING
Faint-Index · 5 months ago
Of course yes
shyamalshikdar · 6 months ago
Hope for the best.👀
Elderly-Recliner · 9 months ago
Ain’t no way
xihong · 10 months ago
Everything is impossible
IngridSolberg · 10 months ago
2026's natural disaster is a stark reminder of our planet's power, but also highlights the incredible resilience and unity of communities coming together in the face of adversity.
Chococremeux · 10 months ago
At least his comment had an oz of intelligence, average Ameretard
Snow-White · 10 months ago
worry more about your finances, BROKEY retard.
Saxton · 10 months ago
It’s only the start of 2026 and the reports about La Nina shifting back to a 'warm neutral' phase have me worried about the upcoming hurricane season.

As of Nov 1, 01:22 PM UTC