Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo
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Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire - Ukraine agrees not to join NATO - Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
Venue activity
Read from the venue 8 days agoBest bid 4% · best ask 5%
Top holders
- dwFqcd4Z51164266914155164078894125458599944121164000045642724059217688177813405604759
- orangeor22812895764648101937611607427223609714680609990042020918357037515389986407242
- tdrhrhhd22812895764648101937611607427223609714680609990042020918357037515389986407242
- How.Dare.You51164266914155164078894125458599944121164000045642724059217688177813405604759
- 0x2f216f0e1b29fafaff537488b884779ec973a65e22812895764648101937611607427223609714680609990042020918357037515389986407242
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL95%$28.58 days ago
- SELL95%$18.88 days ago
- BUY96%$2K8 days ago
- SELL94%$11.79 days ago
- SELL94%$113.411 days ago
- BUY6%$6.713 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
25 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- SIMOMEGA · 2 months ago
not reading market rules is for fools
- SIMOMEGA · 2 months ago
is being a philosopher all u can do?
- LeonForever · 3 months ago
Its been 3 months, hows it going?
- TheShipThatNeverSinks · 3 months ago
moscow refinery goes booom 💥
- abdoohl · 3 months ago
Fuck Ukraine with sick dick 😷 🍆
- 10to5 · 4 months ago
Don't get suckered here. "Peace Parlay"? No, the exigence of the rules require a final signed armistice and complete cessation of hostilities not a ceasefire and stopping of hostilities and negotiations and MOUs like many other similar markets here. Even if RF completely defeats UA, they can still deny this from resolving "yes". Watch your ass
- nizi15 · 5 months ago
Another 200 years and yes
- lud0manchik · 5 months ago
хеджуєм ребята
- gh-3 · 5 months ago
The forces are already exhausted. The human reserves are exhausted. There is no one left to fight. The end of the war is a matter of 3-6 months.
- 8cashcows · 6 months ago
why is the ceasefire poly at 5%
- Thoream · 8 months ago
Now, it is Ukraine that is unable to stop the war from a perspective of its own interests.
- de4th.to.russian.invaders · 8 months ago
We’d be lucky if the invaders agreed even to a ceasefire.
- lostought · 8 months ago
No peace deal, only a ceasefire
- AlinaHi · 9 months ago
4:17 AM still glued to Polymarket, eyes parched, stomach growling, wallet totally drained. Anyone willing to send a little USDC to tide me over till sunrise? I’ll save your address and pray for you nonstop.
- moistcookie · 9 months ago
the nit resolves to as NO lol, clearly read the rules
- pink.impala · 9 months ago
nigga plz
- OtaBenga · 9 months ago
Brother you should get back to it. Just put in a few more thousand and you can probably win it all back
- OtaBenga · 9 months ago
No is a bond
- IMHO · 10 months ago
Underrated market.
- yuri7 · 10 months ago
Rutte rules out Russian veto on Ukraine joining NATO
As of Sep 29, 11:25 PM UTC