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China x Japan military clash before 2027?

No95%
Yes6%

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24h volume$58
7d volume$527.7
30d volume$56.7K
Liquidity$40.8K
Spread1%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Venue activity

Holders815
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments30

Best bid 94% · best ask 95%

Top holders

  • LlamaLoco000024359841971256354562338291910316825498086150942929460621080163666720754945761
  • Trashbag102617319572539919553357676752315366758463499662855057808806666308412570450045
  • i400102617319572539919553357676752315366758463499662855057808806666308412570450045
  • momom102617319572539919553357676752315366758463499662855057808806666308412570450045
  • Serene-Decision102617319572539919553357676752315366758463499662855057808806666308412570450045

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • SELL94%$5.48 days ago
  • SELL94%$28 days ago
  • SELL94%$4.29 days ago
  • SELL94%$6.19 days ago
  • SELL94%$37.69 days ago
  • SELL94%$479 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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30 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • ydadawan · 3 months ago

    你说的对，那我买no了😄

  • Youtube-yebbu · 5 months ago

    Bet your entire fortune on No.

  • EveryPoopooIsPeepeeTime · 6 months ago

    I'd rather lose every prediction I ever make than being Chinese lol, paper dragon

  • ihe · 6 months ago

    lil bro got 3.37 for his biggest win

  • Married-Trigonometry · 6 months ago

    The “May 15 Incident” in 1932, in which the prime minister was assassinated, and the “February 26 Incident” in 1936, in which key political figures in Tokyo were massacred Since Sanae Takaichi took office, public sentiment in Japan has gradually shifted from xenophobia and anti-Chinese sentiment to an escalation involving violent incidents similar to those of the Shōwa era, and the likelihood of conflict between China and Japan is on the rise.

  • Married-Trigonometry · 6 months ago

    A serious incident occurred earlier today (March 24, 2026)—a 20-something active-duty second lieutenant in the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force, armed with a knife, scaled the wall and forced his way into the Chinese Embassy in Japan, threatening to kill people “in the name of God.”

  • EveryPoopooIsPeepeeTime · 6 months ago

    Nothing will happen, the chinese are weak and afraid

  • DontTrustMe · 7 months ago

    Nah, it's probably due to some military exercises sh*t in the sea.

  • EveryPoopooIsPeepeeTime · 7 months ago

    The jew-iran war

  • DontTrustMe · 7 months ago

    What piece of news triggered the spike for Yes exactly?

  • TgGX · 7 months ago

    Easy money

  • YesMannnn · 8 months ago

    又是一个检验智商的盘口

  • YesMannnn · 8 months ago

    free money, but Taiwan market provides more

  • yar0x · 9 months ago

    lol

  • Trumpf-117 · 9 months ago

    Nice try PM of Japan’s burner acct

  • EveryPoopooIsPeepeeTime · 9 months ago

    Not only does nothing ever happens, the Chinese have a paper dragon army and are cowards.

  • NxbYid · 9 months ago

    Its free money

  • qizhan · 9 months ago

    Keep inner peace

  • -0- · 9 months ago

    ur m0m is

  • Triggerismad · 9 months ago

    can we just kill all the japs already?

As of Sep 29, 10:25 PM UTC