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Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?

No88%

Yes13%

Price checked at Sep 29, 11:39 PM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$14K

Spread1%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory (e.g., if an Indian missile or drone hits a target within Pakistan’s borders, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Pakistani territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Pakistani soil or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Indian ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Venue activity

Read from the venue 2 days ago

Holders427

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments63

Best bid 12% · best ask 13%

Top holders

Dependent-Sunrise25856514610130837649380983927848419003326588793008371077788379588860797425932
tradexplorer95158071241835378373987261280797936495997658853712573852939800121782442579496
theGodFather10195158071241835378373987261280797936495997658853712573852939800121782442579496
fgthser25856514610130837649380983927848419003326588793008371077788379588860797425932
Maaary25856514610130837649380983927848419003326588793008371077788379588860797425932

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Discussion on Predxy

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63 comments

From Polymarket's own thread

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jozeslemsek · 11 days ago
The lion called Bharat and the lion called Israel will strike Islam, and only with MODI is this possible. Only under MODI did India become equivalently strong as Israel. Praise Vishnu
Elark · 3 months ago
It will be yes in July or August
LOST-805 · 4 months ago
mat darao inko.. aise hi khane PEENE ko kuch nahi mil ra.
1713 · 4 months ago
Indian force are ready for sindoor 2.0
1713 · 4 months ago
[link removed]
jozeslemsek · 5 months ago
We have to stop Pakistan from redeeming
GGitesh · 5 months ago
R u also mulla , u need brain
Jumpy-Tomtom · 6 months ago
Buy usdt from bianance and then select wallet in polymarket deposit on USDT wallet you're done bro..
kjodsaa · 6 months ago
may god put you out of the darkness
ABHV · 6 months ago
It'll be a yes soon
Satori.Nakamoto · 6 months ago
through binance bhai you can easily transfer or withdraw
tradexplorer · 7 months ago
still india will not attack because of it coward US puppet PM
Both-Molecule · 7 months ago
genuinely indian aircraft hovering over kashmir, pakistan could do the stupidest thing
Hideous-Dream · 8 months ago
If pakistan will be the part of world cup then there have high chance that both countries would be on hold if terrorists is in pakistan army control... Let's see the brahmos operator 😂
YashVats · 9 months ago
deposit using your wallet and withdraw in that wallet only and deposit in that wallet from an exchange make sure u copy address right
YashVats · 10 months ago
well lets see just a few days left before eoy
Normalplayer · 10 months ago
How to deposit /withdraw from India location . Please anyone guide
APCPhantom · 10 months ago
abay 26 mein to duniya khatam hai
chiqiao11111 · 10 months ago
ezmoney India will not Pakistan forever
kongonongo.eth · 10 months ago
bro that is for a Airforce exercise not to fucking blow pakistan up...

As of Sep 29, 11:43 PM UTC