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PolymarketOpen

Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?

No85%
Yes16%

Price checked at

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24h volume$197
7d volume$603
30d volume$1.8K
Liquidity$686
Spread1%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 2 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that Half-Life 3 is in production by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "Half-Life 3" (e.g., Half-Life: Alyx, Half-Life 2: Episode One) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The game must have the words "Half-Life 3" in the title to qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.

Venue activity

Holders225
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments35

Best bid 14% · best ask 15%

Top holders

  • Orange-Measure61357261066156427607874461963210376168557582747775514258762252431133388687435
  • jeffreyepsteinHALFLIFE3ISCOMING61357261066156427607874461963210376168557582747775514258762252431133388687435
  • Infantile-Salami6991261290382769111733079462092282665787540572081318556604857015498053666166
  • Distinct-Kale6991261290382769111733079462092282665787540572081318556604857015498053666166
  • daiphoenix6991261290382769111733079462092282665787540572081318556604857015498053666166

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • BUY15%$215 days ago
  • BUY85%$415 days ago
  • BUY84%$415 days ago
  • SELL87%$1716 days ago
  • BUY90%$1019 days ago
  • BUY88%$4424 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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35 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • poolysydney · last month

  • poolysydney · last month

    crazy how its not 5% or less

  • AndyBurnham · 6 months ago

    true

  • AndyBurnham · 6 months ago

    you mean -400

  • netofsa · 6 months ago

  • Ts46 · 6 months ago

    hopium is running low

  • MatejaPB · 6 months ago

    66% yes

  • PayoCotizador · 8 months ago

    Válgame

  • ophphirmatatu · 8 months ago

    sad

  • koeg · 8 months ago

    nothing ever happens

  • jeffreyepsteinHALFLIFE3ISCOMING · 8 months ago

    ITS COMING MFS HOPIUM RAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH

  • Mitakaasa7 · 9 months ago

    Nothing ever happens

  • royluo328 · 10 months ago

    Vote for '' YES'' , if resulted ''YES'', CASHED OUT and BUY HALF LIFE 3 !

  • YoungMoziRPG · 10 months ago

    mad respect by the way, you don't find 600 usd on the streets

  • willnzzz · 10 months ago

    nah it gonna hit

  • YoungMoziRPG · 10 months ago

    Let us pause to admire the YES contingent in the prediction market, those with insane levels of unwarranted conviction. They approach the complex tapestry of forecasting not with rigorous analysis, but with the interpretive dance of pure, uncut vibes. While the rest of us are busy updating our Bayesian priors and calibrating confidence intervals, these intrepid souls are mainlining weaponized optimism, convinced they’ve discovered the cheat code to reality by listening to clowns like Witkoff and Trump. It’s genuinely fascinating. They don't just place a wager; they engage in a profound act of cognitive dissonance, confusing a fervent desire for an outcome with its actual statistical likelihood. They look at a 10% probability and see a 90% discount on certainty. Bless them, they are the necessary liquidity in the market, the financial equivalent of bringing a strongly worded letter to a sword fight: performative, utterly ineffective, and guaranteed to provide excellent entertainment for the victors.

  • YoungMoziRPG · 10 months ago

    What happened? why the drop?

  • YoungMoziRPG · 10 months ago

    5cents spread guys, wtf

  • Kaydenb3 · 10 months ago

    Nothing ever happens

  • YoungMoziRPG · 10 months ago

    Bet more then

As of Nov 1, 03:00 PM UTC