PolymarketOpen

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?

No90%

Yes11%

Price checked at Sep 29, 09:07 PM UTC

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24h volume$11.2K

7d volume$121.1K

30d volume$1.6M

Liquidity$71.1K

Spread1%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	Polymarket	99% No	$3.6K	—	—	Open
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	Polymarket	98% No	$724.5	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 2 days ago

Holders874

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 88% · best ask 89%

Top holders

aff3100292172522149577922637436103132246456042318074117879550513151144706945321275
GoriIIa100292172522149577922637436103132246456042318074117879550513151144706945321275
neutralwave2327554074579538085152312757613342843137057353684724415806149658005255326639761
flawfence27554074579538085152312757613342843137057353684724415806149658005255326639761
thoodr100292172522149577922637436103132246456042318074117879550513151144706945321275

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

SELL88%$0.12 days ago
SELL10%$952 days ago
SELL88%$100.32 days ago
BUY89%$42 days ago
BUY12%$502 days ago
BUY12%$222 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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As of Sep 29, 09:18 PM UTC