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OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

No83%
Yes18%

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24h volume$3.3K
7d volume$17.2K
30d volume$181.1K
Liquidity$24K
Spread1%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Venue activity

Holders397
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
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Open interest—
Comments31

Best bid 17% · best ask 18%

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31 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • iutwpfal · 17 days ago

    I like the stock

  • Vusion · 18 days ago

    OpenAI Is Open to Slowing Cutting-Edge AI, CEO Sam Altman Tells Staff

  • Chinchinnati · 19 days ago

    I did and sold thank you, my funds are now locked elsewhere. Another millenium prize solved. While you masturbate in your csuite I gamble and enjoy cocaine

  • yen4u · 20 days ago

    You aren't trading at all. Buy some shares cockroach

  • Vusion · 20 days ago

    Why did you sell retard 😂😂

  • Chinchinnati · 21 days ago

    As I said ure full of shit, the contract is still on, you looked it up and now realize ur 1.2k no is wasted money. Good job baby thanks for the free money talk to u in 1month when its 50%

  • Chinchinnati · 21 days ago

    The contract is totally still binding send source

  • Vusion · 21 days ago

    That contract doesn’t even exist anymore, they completely renegotiated the deal.

  • Chinchinnati · 21 days ago

    Im not saying Im insider trading but I didnt get one wrong ;)

  • Chinchinnati · 21 days ago

    100% going to resolve to YES; when they IPO they don't want to share with Microsoft do they, read the contracts.

  • JoPower · 23 days ago

    I was wrong. There was indeed someone either unaware or bold enough to do this. Jensen Huang.

  • LevantLeverage · 25 days ago

    this could be the end of humanity

  • Hot-Skull · 26 days ago

    It’s crazy how well OpenAI managed to keep the way Astra was presented era agi so consistent across all their employees

  • JoPower · 26 days ago

    Left alone, OpenAI might officially declare AGI in the near future. Or maybe Brockman's comments would be enough for UMA to resolve the market to yes. But in the same day, Bernie Sanders floated banning Super Intelligence outright. You can call it ASI, or AGI. But no AI leader would be stupid enough now to declare AGI and face the brunt of political backlash. Thus, they might never declare.

  • Eia · last month

    Yes, for this market it is. This is an announcement market for OpenAI. If they announce that they have an internal AGI, the market will resolve Yes. Doesnt actually have to be AGI, or be proven to be, they just need to say it. And they will, they need the buzz to stay relevant, so high probability they will.

  • tbkboss · last month

    Is AGI = Altman's Genius Idea? Is it agi cause he says so?

  • Eia · last month

    Chief research officer Mark Chen estimated OpenAI is “80% of the way” to AGI. Brockman said that viewed from two years in the future, this may be remembered as the moment AGI was created.

  • Eia · last month

    The Times: "Altman told me that OpenAI was “not quite yet” there, but that by the end of the year the company would have an internal system he would call AGI."

  • Brovadana · 2 months ago

    Don't bet on markets if you don't even understand the basic reality behind them. Whether AGI is achieved will always be debatable. Some will say it is true, some will say it is not.

  • Windy-Southeast · 2 months ago

    I'd be cautious here, these openAI scammers tend to lie a lot, so they can announce this even if it's not true

As of Sep 29, 09:27 PM UTC