Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

No99%
Yes1%

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24h volume$999.9
7d volume$22.2K
30d volume$379.2K
Liquidity$1.5M
Spread0%
ResolvesNov 8, 2028in 2 years

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question →
Comparable, not identical. Polymarket and PredictFun specify consensus of official Democratic Party sources, while Kalshi does not specify a source; this is a settlement-method difference, not a different question. The listed settlement times also differ, and PredictFun provides no settlement time.
  • KalshiOpen →

    2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Will Raphael Warnock be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

    If Raphael Warnock wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

    read Sep 29, 08:09 PM UTC

  • Polymarketthis market

    Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

    549 holders · 838 comments · read Sep 27, 01:29 AM UTC

  • PredictFunOpen →

    Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

    read Sep 29, 08:54 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket84% NoOpen
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket99% NoOpen
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket95% NoOpen
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket85% NoOpen
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket97% NoOpen
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket94% NoOpen
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket97% NoOpen
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket99% NoOpen
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket99% NoOpen
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket100% NoOpen

Venue activity

Holders549
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments833

Best bid 1% · best ask 1%

Top holders

  • 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296688403451835230950222119400360490338078378790763472355557584611572247419676051
  • gloriafoster52310257194926233099477326083312959938983447523839326865869372741334281264830
  • fsx4552310257194926233099477326083312959938983447523839326865869372741334281264830
  • Forrester2652310257194926233099477326083312959938983447523839326865869372741334281264830
  • bernardbulletin52310257194926233099477326083312959938983447523839326865869372741334281264830

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

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Discussion on Predxy

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833 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • Ulve130kkaikelex · 2 days ago

    Tim Walz odds are shifting fast, 2 shares hold

  • Tony61Montana · 4 days ago

    Josh Shapiro easy choice: 1) Jewish 2) Wins at Pennsylvania which is a key state for presidency 3) Raised in a US Navy base 4) Old enough not to be inexperienced but also young enough not to be a dinosaur 5) Ex Attorney General of Pennsylvania... 6) Was attacked for being jewish--> In April 2025, Shapiro and his family survived an arson attack at the governor's mansion, hours after holding a Passover Seder. Very easy choice, trading super low for the potential it has.

  • ISMS2222 · 5 days ago

    History shows that after a chaotic presidency, a steady leader can be exactly what the country wants. Gerald Ford followed Nixon and Watergate. Calvin Coolidge followed an administration engulfed in scandal. Eisenhower followed years of war and political tension under Truman. None was known for daily drama; each offered a calmer style. “Boring” can be a political strength when voters are exhausted. Calm, competent and predictable can sound pretty good after chaos.

  • CKAB · 5 days ago

    It won't even matter if they have to give a senate seat to run him because the Dems will have like 55 secure seats at that point from Trump's incompetence and unpopularity.

  • Triangular-Epauliere · 5 days ago

    ...

  • ISMS2222 · 6 days ago

    Don’t be scared of something that’s becoming increasingly obvious. Your mind will play tricks on you and make you overthink it, but this guy is the guy. Total package

  • CKAB · 6 days ago

    Georgia is the Pennsylvania of 2028. It's clearly Ossoff.

  • CKAB · 6 days ago

    Ossoff owns

  • CKAB · 6 days ago

    They'd be right to. America still is not ready for a woman president.

  • CKAB · 6 days ago

    The polls are meaningless right now and she's only leading in them because of inertia.

  • CKAB · 6 days ago

    He's not going to run for prez after being a senator for basically 1.5 years max, bro.

  • CKAB · 6 days ago

    Because 2020, 2024, and appearing with El-Sayed recently

  • snimuslivo4ki · 6 days ago

    we need 40 cent yes?

  • bananajamsamin · 6 days ago

    are you shure?

  • JoJojO-690 · 7 days ago

    A crowded field could help the candidate with the most committed base

  • ISMS2222 · 8 days ago

  • MaxShorter · 9 days ago

    Fill me kamala

  • David.Brown19 · 11 days ago

    рrеdicue found the probability was 15% underpriced vs real data. entered. exited well

  • wantbehappy · 11 days ago

    Kamala Harris not have a change guys why so high?

  • satsbagger · 13 days ago

    This ones been too long for me, time to plug in on polybro

As of Sep 29, 09:12 PM UTC