Will Vance peak at Category 4?
2%Yes
32 ptsover 24h
The field · 5 outcomes
24h volume$1.4K
Total volume$2K
Markets11 venue, 1 priced
ResolvesNov 5, 2026in 12 days
First seenOct 22, 2026
Watching0
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities on Polymarket · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.
If you’re right
What a stake pays at each venue, before fees$
| Venue | Price | Shares | Pays | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1.9¢ | 5,263 | $5,263 | +$5,163 52.6× |
Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.
Where this question trades
1 venueComparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.
- Will Vance peak at Category 4?99% No$1.4K 24h volumeResolution rulesSet your country to see where you can trade.Set your country
As of Oct 24, 03:34 PM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.