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PoliticsUnited StatesUnited States

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 8%-12%?

14%Yes
1 ptsover 24h

The field · 12 outcomes

  1. Raman 0-4%21%0
  2. Bass 0-4%19%7
  3. Raman 8-12% · this question14%1
  4. Raman 12-16%13%3
  5. Raman 4-8%12%4
  6. Bass 4-8%12%0
  7. Bass 8-12%6%0
  8. Bass 16-20%4%2
  9. Raman 16-20%4%0
  10. Raman 20+%3%1
  11. Bass 12-16%3%2
  12. Bass 20+%2%0
24h volume$0
Total volume$0
Markets11 venue, 0 priced
ResolvesNov 4, 2026in 10 days
First seenSep 25, 2026
Watching0

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 25Oct 3Oct 10Oct 17Oct 25Down 18 points on Sep 26Down 22 points on Sep 27Up 14 points on Sep 30Down 10 points on Oct 2Up 13 points on Oct 8
▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

If you’re right

$
Side
VenuePriceSharesPaysProfit
Polymarket16¢625$625+$525 6.3×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

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As of Oct 25, 08:33 AM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.