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WorldUAEIranUAEIran

Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by November 30, 2026?

46%Yes
2 ptsover 24h

The field · 2 outcomes

  1. November 30 · this question46%2
  2. October 3120%6
24h volume$457
Total volume$1.9K
Markets11 venue, 1 priced
ResolvesDec 1, 2026next month
First seenSep 30, 2026
Watching0

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 30Oct 6Oct 12Oct 18Oct 24Down 16 points on Oct 3Down 17 points on Oct 13Down 28 points on Oct 16Up 29 points on Oct 17Down 15 points on Oct 18
▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

If you’re right

$
Side
VenuePriceSharesPaysProfit
Polymarket53¢189$189+$88.68 1.9×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

More in World

View category
  1. 1NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
    2%Yes40 pts
  2. 2US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
    79%Yes1 pts
  3. 3NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?
    7%Yes16 pts
  4. 4NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
    19%Yes30 pts
  5. 5US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?
    88%Yes5 pts

As of Oct 24, 07:25 PM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.