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WorldIranIran

Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?

20%Yes
1 ptsover 24h

The field · 2 outcomes

  1. December 31 · this question20%1
  2. October 315%1
24h volume$1.1K
Total volume$24.9K
Markets11 venue, 1 priced
ResolvesNov 1, 2026in 7 days
First seenOct 12, 2026
Watching0

From Today's edition · Oct 14, 2026

A typical photograph of Iran would show a national government building, city skyline, or an official gathering with Iranian flags.
Illustrative photo · Mostafameraji, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

This asks whether Iran will damage or sabotage undersea internet cables before the Dec. 31 resolution date. The newest dated development I found was Oct. 11, when AP reported that Mohsen Rezaei, a senior Iranian figure and former Revolutionary Guard commander, said Tehran viewed the latest U.S. response as “insufficient” and warned of attacks on regional data centers and cables if fighting intensifies again; the remarks were carried by IRNA. That is a threat, not a verified cable strike. [1] For context, AP’s security tracker says undersea cable cuts in the Red Sea have already disrupted internet in Asia and the Middle East, showing how disruptive any actual damage can be. But the reporting I found does not identify a confirmed Iran-directed cable attack on the question’s terms; the live issue is whether a verified incident happens before Dec. 31, not whether rhetoric about cables continues. [2]

Context by Predxy AI ·

  1. 1. Iran calls latest US response to proposal insufficient, and other Mideast developments apnews.com
  2. 2. Impacts of security in trade | The Associated Press ap.org

AI-researched background, with linked sources. It does not explain or predict market movements.

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 12Oct 15Oct 18Oct 21Oct 24Down 9 points on Oct 14
▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

What happened

  1. Mohsen Rezaei called the U.S. response insufficient and warned of attacks on regional data centers and cables if fighting worsens. Iran calls latest US response to proposal insufficient, and other Mideast developments
  2. The U.S., U.K. and 23 other governments condemned Iran's attacks but did not cite a cable incident. Iran calls latest US response to proposal insufficient, and other Mideast developments

Dated from the reporting the question's context cites, and placed alongside the price — never as the reason it moved. Written by AI from cited sources; in English.

If you’re right

$
Side
VenuePriceSharesPaysProfit
Polymarket21¢476$476+$376 4.8×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

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As of Oct 24, 05:08 PM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.