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Technology

Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours?

85%Yes
4 ptsover 24h

The field · 3 outcomes

  1. 3-6 hours · this question85%4
  2. 6-12 hours14%4
  3. 12+ hours<1%0
24h volume$504
Total volume$14.7K
Markets11 venue, 1 priced
ResolvesNov 1, 2026in 8 days
First seenSep 30, 2026
Watching0

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 30Oct 6Oct 12Oct 18Oct 24Oct 5, 2026 · An Actions and Hosted Runners incident lasted about 4 hours and 1 minute.1Oct 6, 2026 · A GitHub incident ran from 19:57 UTC to 23:40 UTC.2Oct 7, 2026 · GitHub lists shorter incidents on Oct. 7.3Oct 12, 2026 · GitHub says notifications were fully mitigated by 20:16 UTC.4Oct 19, 2026 · GitHub’s October history was still incomplete as of Oct. 19.5Down 19 points on Oct 3Down 18 points on Oct 6Down 13 points on Oct 12Down 24 points on Oct 17Up 13 points on Oct 18
▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

What happened

  1. An Actions and Hosted Runners incident lasted about 4 hours and 1 minute. GitHub Status - Incident History
  2. A GitHub incident ran from 19:57 UTC to 23:40 UTC. GitHub Status - Incident History
  3. GitHub lists shorter incidents on Oct. 7. GitHub Status - Incident History
  4. GitHub says notifications were fully mitigated by 20:16 UTC. GitHub Status
  5. GitHub’s October history was still incomplete as of Oct. 19. GitHub Status

Dated from the reporting the question's context cites, and placed alongside the price — never as the reason it moved. Written by AI from cited sources; in English.

If you’re right

$
Side
VenuePriceSharesPaysProfit
Polymarket86¢116$116+$16.28 1.2×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

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As of Oct 24, 02:51 PM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.