Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?
8%Yes
3 ptsover 24hOne venue carries this question.
24h volume$180.2
Total volume$5.1K
Markets11 venue, 1 priced
ResolvesOct 4, 2026in 5 days
First seenSep 22, 2026
Watching0
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities on Polymarket · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.
Where this question trades
1 venueComparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.
- PolymarketWill 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?92% No$180.2 24h volumeResolution rules →Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country →
More in World
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- 2US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?33%Yes1 pts
- 3Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?5%Yes1 pts
- 4Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?24%Yes1 pts
- 5 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?10%Yes7 pts
As of Sep 29, 07:31 PM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.