US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?
30%Yes
4 ptsover 24h
The field · 4 outcomes
24h volume$5.6K
Total volume$164.8K
Markets11 venue, 1 priced
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 2 months
First seenSep 28, 2026
Watching0
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities on Polymarket · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.
If you’re right
What a stake pays at each venue, before fees$
| Venue | Price | Shares | Pays | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30¢ | 333 | $333 | +$233 3.3× |
Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.
Where this question trades
1 venueComparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?71% No$5.6K 24h volumeResolution rulesSet your country to see where you can trade.Set your country
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As of Oct 24, 02:49 PM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.