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EconomyUnited StatesUnited States

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

61%Yes
1 ptsover 24h
24h volume$72
Total volume$11.6K
Markets11 venue, 1 priced
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 2 months
First seenSep 28, 2026
Watching0

From Today's edition · Oct 20, 2026

A typical photograph shows the FDIC seal mounted on a wall or displayed at a government office entrance.
Illustrative photo · G. Edward Johnson, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

The question asks whether at least one U.S. bank will fail by December 31, 2026; it resolves at year-end, and the relevant outcome is simply any FDIC-insured bank closing before then. The latest verified FDIC update on its 2026 bank-failures page says there have been two failures so far this year: Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in Chicago on January 30, 2026, and Community Bank and Trust - West Georgia on May 1, 2026. The FDIC’s failed-bank list also shows those two 2026 closings and no later 2026 entries on the pages we could verify. [1] Those verified dates matter because they establish that the market is pricing a binary event with an already-triggered 2026 track record, not a hypothetical first failure. What remains to decide the question is whether another U.S. bank fails between now and December 31, 2026; absent a new FDIC closing notice, the outcome is still open. The FDIC’s 2026 summary page is the cleanest official record to watch for any additional failure, and any new receivership announcement before year-end would settle the market toward “Yes.” [1]

Context by Predxy AI ·

  1. 1. Bank Failures | FDIC.gov fdic.gov

AI-researched background, with linked sources. It does not explain or predict market movements.

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 28Oct 5Oct 12Oct 18Oct 25Up 14 points on Sep 29Down 16 points on Oct 5Up 12 points on Oct 7Down 18 points on Oct 8Up 25 points on Oct 16
▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

What happened

  1. FDIC staff said the Problem Bank List stood at 59 institutions. Board Memo - Notice of Designated Reserve Ratio for 2026
  2. Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in Chicago failed. Bank Failures | FDIC.gov
  3. Community Bank and Trust - West Georgia failed. Bank Failures | FDIC.gov

Dated from the reporting the question's context cites, and placed alongside the price — never as the reason it moved. Written by AI from cited sources; in English.

If you’re right

$
Side
VenuePriceSharesPaysProfit
Polymarket61¢164$164+$63.93 1.6×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

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As of Oct 25, 04:34 AM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.