Nobel Prize in Economics 2026: Will Ariel Pakes win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel?

Result

Resolved No on Oct 15, 2026.

This question has settled. The price shown is final, and the change is the resolution, not a move.

1%Ariel Pakes
0 ptsover 24hVolume-weighted across 1 of 2 venues
24h volume$6.7K
Total volume$15.5K
Markets22 venues, 1 priced
ResolvesOct 13, 202612 days ago
First seenSep 7, 2026
Watching0

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 16Sep 24Oct 3Oct 12Available history starts Sep 24Oct 12, 2026 · The economics prize was due to be announced by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences at 11:45 CEST.1Oct 12, 2026 · The academy awarded the economics prize to Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford instead.2Oct 12, 2026 · The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announces the winner of the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences at 11:45 AM CEST.3Down 46 points on Sep 24Up 45 points on Sep 25Up 22 points on Oct 12
▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

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Based on market prices from Kalshi. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

What happened

  1. The economics prize was due to be announced by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences at 11:45 CEST. Prize announcement dates - NobelPrize.org
  2. The academy awarded the economics prize to Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford instead. 2 American economists win Nobel for work on managing economic shocks
  3. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announces the winner of the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences at 11:45 AM CEST. Nobel Prize 2026, Winners List, Categories, Dates, Latest Updates

Dated from the reporting the question's context cites, and placed alongside the price — never as the reason it moved. Written by AI from cited sources; in English.

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As of Oct 25, 05:55 AM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.