Next Claude Haiku (5.6+) released by January 31, 2027?

48%Yes
10 ptsover 24h

The field · 2 outcomes

  1. January 31 · this question48%10
  2. December 3144%9
24h volume$52
Total volume$1.1K
Markets11 venue, 1 priced
ResolvesFeb 1, 2027in 3 months
First seenOct 8, 2026
Watching0

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 8Oct 12Oct 16Oct 20Oct 24Up 30 points on Oct 9Down 17 points on Oct 10Down 14 points on Oct 12Down 11 points on Oct 20Up 13 points on Oct 22
▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

If you’re right

$
Side
VenuePriceSharesPaysProfit
Polymarket52¢192$192+$92.31 1.9×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.
  1. 1Anthropic IPO Officially Confirmed By: November 30, 2026
    64%Yes20 pts
  2. 2Anthropic IPO Officially Confirmed By: December 31, 2026
    85%Yes1 pts
  3. 3Which Companies Will Confirm an IPO in 2026: Anthropic
    81%Yes4 pts
  4. 4Anthropic IPO Officially Confirmed By: June 30, 2027
    92%Yes0 pts
  5. 5Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?
    28%Yes4 pts

As of Oct 24, 01:55 PM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.