Lai Ching-te visits US by June 30?

13%Yes
1 ptsover 24h

The field · 2 outcomes

  1. June 30 · this question13%1
  2. December 312%0
24h volume$0
Total volume$0
Markets11 venue, 0 priced
ResolvesJul 1, 2027in 8 months
First seenSep 30, 2026
Watching0

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 30Oct 6Oct 12Oct 18Oct 24Down 9 points on Oct 2Up 13 points on Oct 3Down 14 points on Oct 7Up 19 points on Oct 8Up 18 points on Oct 14
▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

If you’re right

$
Side
VenuePriceSharesPaysProfit
Polymarket14¢714$714+$614 7.1×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

As of Oct 24, 05:32 PM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.