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PoliticsFranceFrance

France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?

16%Yes
1 ptsover 24h

The field · 2 outcomes

  1. December 31 · this question16%1
  2. October 317%2
24h volume$28K
Total volume$368.3K
Markets11 venue, 1 priced
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 2 months
First seenOct 18, 2026
Watching0

From Today's edition · Oct 22, 2026

A typical photograph shows the French government building in Paris with the national flag flying overhead.
Illustrative photo · Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Rapid Response Team, NASA/GSFC, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

This market asks whether France will declare a state of emergency by Dec. 31, 2026, and it resolves on that date. Under the 1955 law, a state of emergency is declared by decree in cabinet, and any extension beyond 12 days needs legislation. [1] The latest verified developments are from Oct. 22: Macron said “illegitimate” protests would be banned in the coming days after the Oct. 17 unrest, while Reuters said the government is still relying on curfews and tighter policing rather than announcing a nationwide emergency decree. On Oct. 19, Reuters reported that Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu ruled out a blanket curfew in Paris but did not rule out a state of emergency, leaving the issue open but not yet triggered. AP reported on Oct. 21-22 that France is still dealing with intense protests and riots, with demonstrations continuing in Paris and other cities. [2]

Context by Predxy AI ·

  1. 1. Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence. - Légifrance legifrance.gouv.fr
  2. 2. France's Macron tightens curbs on protests, blaming hard left for unrest | MarketScreener marketscreener.com

AI-researched background, with linked sources. It does not explain or predict market movements.

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 18Oct 20Oct 21Oct 23Oct 25Oct 19, 2026 · Reuters said Lecornu ruled out a blanket Paris curfew but left emergency powers open.4Oct 19, 2026 · Curfews were imposed in parts of Paris, Lille and Nice.5Oct 20, 2026 · The implementing decree was still in force.6Oct 20, 2026 · AP said Paris and Lyon stayed calm overnight under the curfews.7Oct 20, 2026 · Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu ordered localized curfews instead of emergency powers.8Oct 21, 2026 · AP said France was still facing intense protests and riots in Paris and other cities.9Oct 22, 2026 · Reuters said the government was using curfews and tighter policing instead of a nationwide decree.10Up 10 points on Oct 20
▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

What happened

  1. The latest official text still showed the 1955 framework in force. Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence. - Légifrance
  2. Légifrance still showed the emergency law in force. TITRE Ier (Articles 1 à 14-1) - Légifrance
  3. Unrest broke out and Macron later said illegitimate protests would be banned. France's Macron tightens curbs on protests, blaming hard left for unrest | MarketScreener
  4. Reuters said Lecornu ruled out a blanket Paris curfew but left emergency powers open. France's Macron tightens curbs on protests, blaming hard left for unrest | MarketScreener
  5. Curfews were imposed in parts of Paris, Lille and Nice. Paris police issue overnight curfew in 2 areas of French capital to try to prevent further disorder
  6. The implementing decree was still in force. TITRE Ier (Articles 1 à 14-1) - Légifrance
  7. AP said Paris and Lyon stayed calm overnight under the curfews. Paris police issue overnight curfew in 2 areas of French capital to try to prevent further disorder
  8. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu ordered localized curfews instead of emergency powers. Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence. - Légifrance
  9. AP said France was still facing intense protests and riots in Paris and other cities. France's Macron tightens curbs on protests, blaming hard left for unrest | MarketScreener
  10. Reuters said the government was using curfews and tighter policing instead of a nationwide decree. France's Macron tightens curbs on protests, blaming hard left for unrest | MarketScreener
  11. Protest groups called another round of demonstrations for Oct. 25. Paris police issue overnight curfew in 2 areas of French capital to try to prevent further disorder

Dated from the reporting the question's context cites, and placed alongside the price — never as the reason it moved. Written by AI from cited sources; in English.

If you’re right

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Side
VenuePriceSharesPaysProfit
Polymarket16¢625$625+$525 6.3×

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Where this question trades

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As of Oct 25, 06:33 AM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.