Brazil presidential runoff: Lula vote percent: Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receive at least 47.5% of the popular vote in the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
73%At least 47.5%
2 ptsover 24h
The field · 10 outcomes
24h volume$28
Total volume$435
Markets11 venue, 1 priced
ResolvesNov 25, 2026next month
First seenOct 13, 2026
Watching0
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities on Kalshi · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Based on market prices from Kalshi. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.
If you’re right
What a stake pays at each venue, before fees$
| Venue | Price | Shares | Pays | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74¢ | 135 | $135 | +$35.14 1.4× |
Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.
Where this question trades
1 venueComparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.
- Brazil presidential runoff: Lula vote percent: Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receive at least 47.5% of the popular vote in the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?73% At least 47.5%$28 24h volumeResolution rulesSet your country to see where you can trade.Set your country
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As of Oct 25, 02:49 AM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.