Brazil presidential runoff: Lula vote percent: Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receive at least 47.5% of the popular vote in the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is 47.5% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's share of the valid votes cast in the second round (runoff), calculated as votes received divided by total valid votes cast, times 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided by the Fully-Conducted Elections and Accelerated Resolution provisions in the Contract, resolution uses certified official results from the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, not preliminary results. Invalid, spoiled, blank, and rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.Venue activity
Read from the venue 4 hours agoDiscussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
As of Oct 24, 02:03 PM UTC