Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the vote in the United States in the Brazil presidential runoff?
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in 1st place in the United States (Brazilian voters abroad) in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: Rank is based on runoff vote totals only In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. Each market ranks the runoff votes cast by Brazilian voters in the named country, as reported in the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) Exterior results for that country.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.Venue activity
Read from the venue this minuteDiscussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
As of Oct 24, 07:38 PM UTC