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Brazil presidential runoff: which countries will Flávio Bolsonaro win?: Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the vote in Venezuela in the Brazil presidential runoff?

Venezuela65%
No35%

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24h volume$0
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Spread10%
ResolvesNov 25, 2027next year

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 22, 10:45 AMOct 23, 04:36 AMOct 23, 10:27 PMOct 24, 04:18 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in 1st place in Venezuela (Brazilian voters abroad) in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: Rank is based on runoff vote totals only In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. Each market ranks the runoff votes cast by Brazilian voters in the named country, as reported in the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) Exterior results for that country.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Brazil presidential runoff: which countries will Flávio Bolsonaro win?: Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the vote in Argentina in the Brazil presidential runoff?Kalshi92% NoOpen
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the vote in Costa Rica in the Brazil presidential runoff?Kalshi60% NoOpen
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the vote in Uruguay in the Brazil presidential runoff?Kalshi74% NoOpen
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the vote in Mexico in the Brazil presidential runoff?Kalshi81% MexicoOpen
Brazil presidential runoff: which countries will Flávio Bolsonaro win?: Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the vote in Switzerland in the Brazil presidential runoff?Kalshi85% NoOpen
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the vote in Colombia in the Brazil presidential runoff?Kalshi76% ColombiaOpen
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the vote in Chile in the Brazil presidential runoff?Kalshi73% NoOpen
Brazil presidential runoff: which countries will Flávio Bolsonaro win?: Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the vote in Greece in the Brazil presidential runoff?Kalshi90% GreeceOpen
Brazil presidential runoff: which countries will Flávio Bolsonaro win?: Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the vote in Belgium in the Brazil presidential runoff?Kalshi93% NoOpen
Brazil presidential runoff: which countries will Flávio Bolsonaro win?: Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the vote in the United States in the Brazil presidential runoff?Kalshi97% United StatesOpen

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As of Oct 24, 05:14 PM UTC