Texas: Abbott's margin vs. Paxton's margin?: Will Greg Abbott's governor margin minus Ken Paxton's Senate margin be at least 12 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? Abbott by 12+

If Greg Abbott's margin in the Texas governor election minus Ken Paxton's margin in the Texas U.S. Senate election is at least 12 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Each candidate's margin is their percentage of the total votes cast in their race minus the percentage received by the highest-finishing other candidate in that race, calculated from the certified results. Total votes cast include write-in votes reported in the certified results. A margin is negative if the candidate does not finish first. The difference between the two margins is rounded to two decimal places, and a range includes its lower number but not its upper number.