Texas: Abbott's margin vs. Paxton's margin?: Will Ken Paxton's Senate margin minus Greg Abbott's governor margin be at least 3 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? Paxton by 3+

If Ken Paxton's margin in the Texas U.S. Senate election minus Greg Abbott's margin in the Texas governor election is at least 3 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Each candidate's margin is their percentage of the total votes cast in their race minus the percentage received by the highest-finishing other candidate in that race, calculated from the certified results. Total votes cast include write-in votes reported in the certified results. A margin is negative if the candidate does not finish first. The difference between the two margins is rounded to two decimal places, and a range includes its lower number but not its upper number.