Rafael do Nascimento wins

No99%
Rafael do Nascimento1%

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This market has settled. The prices shown are final.
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24h volume$53.6K
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread—
ResolvesOct 17, 20267 days ago

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 14Oct 15Oct 16Oct 16Oct 17Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Rafael do Nascimento wins the Sarvarjon Khamidov vs Rafael do Nascimento professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Sarvarjon Khamidov vs Rafael do Nascimento professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Oct 16, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. Both resolve on the result of the same fight; their published tie/no contest and cancellation handling differ only in mechanics, not in the underlying question. Kalshi frames the market as a Yes/No on Rafael winning, while Polymarket lists the fighter names as mutually exclusive outcomes.
  • Kalshithis market

    Rafael do Nascimento wins

    If Rafael do Nascimento wins the Sarvarjon Khamidov vs Rafael do Nascimento professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Sarvarjon Khamidov vs Rafael do Nascimento professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Oct 16, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

  • Sarvarjon Khamidov vs Rafael do Nascimento

    This market will settle to the winner of the Sarvarjon Khamidov vs Rafael do Nascimento PFL fight scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. If the fight ends in a draw or is declared a no contest, the market will settle to $0.50. If the fight is cancelled before the opening bell, the market will settle to the last fair market price. If the fight is not held within 2 calendar days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from PFL.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Sarvarjon Khamidov winsKalshi99% Sarvarjon KhamidovOpen

Venue activity

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As of Oct 24, 04:18 PM UTC