Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

## **Market Dates** - **Market Period:** From market publication until October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET (4:00 PM UTC). - **Market Close:** October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET (4:00 PM UTC). - **Resolution Time:** Upon checking the leaderboard at Market Close. ## **Resolution Criteria** This market will resolve to the company that owns the model ranked first on the [**arena.ai**](http://arena.ai) **Text Arena (Overall)** leaderboard when it is checked on **October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET**. - Resolves to **“Yes”** for the company that owns the first-ranked model. - Resolves to **“No”** for all other outcomes. - If the company that owns the first-ranked model is not listed as an outcome, all outcomes will resolve to **“No”**. - Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any unrounded values reflected in the leaderboard data. If a tie still remains, the company listed first in alphabetical order among this market's outcomes will be ranked ahead. - Models marked “AutoEval” at the time of the check will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. - Changes to the leaderboard after the check time will not be considered. ## **Resolution Source** - This market resolves based on the “Rank” column of the **Text Arena | Overall** leaderboard at [https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control](https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control), with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for “Models”. - If the leaderboard is unavailable at the check time, this market will remain open and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available again. ## **Cancellation Conditions** - The leaderboard becomes permanently unavailable. - Any circumstance makes it impossible to determine the outcome definitively. If the market is cancelled, participants can claim their stakes at the then-current market value of their shares, which could result in a profit or a loss depending on the price of those shares at cancellation.

Sourcehttps://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

• Open →

  Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

  This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

  292 holders · 0 comments · read Oct 1, 04:15 PM UTC

• Open →

  Best AI model end of October 2026: Google

  The venue publishes no resolution criteria for this market.

  read Oct 24, 01:11 AM UTC

• Open →

  Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

  This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

  read Oct 21, 10:59 AM UTC

• this market

  Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

  ## **Market Dates** - **Market Period:** From market publication until October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET (4:00 PM UTC). - **Market Close:** October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET (4:00 PM UTC). - **Resolution Time:** Upon checking the leaderboard at Market Close. ## **Resolution Criteria** This market will resolve to the company that owns the model ranked first on the [**arena.ai**](http://arena.ai) **Text Arena (Overall)** leaderboard when it is checked on **October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET**. - Resolves to **“Yes”** for the company that owns the first-ranked model. - Resolves to **“No”** for all other outcomes. - If the company that owns the first-ranked model is not listed as an outcome, all outcomes will resolve to **“No”**. - Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any unrounded values reflected in the leaderboard data. If a tie still remains, the company listed first in alphabetical order among this market's outcomes will be ranked ahead. - Models marked “AutoEval” at the time of the check will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. - Changes to the leaderboard after the check time will not be considered. ## **Resolution Source** - This market resolves based on the “Rank” column of the **Text Arena | Overall** leaderboard at [https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control](https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control), with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for “Models”. - If the leaderboard is unavailable at the check time, this market will remain open and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available again. ## **Cancellation Conditions** - The leaderboard becomes permanently unavailable. - Any circumstance makes it impossible to determine the outcome definitively. If the market is cancelled, participants can claim their stakes at the then-current market value of their shares, which could result in a profit or a loss depending on the price of those shares at cancellation.

  read Oct 23, 11:48 PM UTC

• Open →

  Which company has the best AI model end of October — Google

  This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available.

  read Oct 24, 01:04 AM UTC