Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

No100%
Yes0%

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ResolvesOct 10, 202615 days ago

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 10Oct 12

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. The venues differ in joint-award handling and settlement deadlines: Gemini and Kalshi settle on whether the ICC is named, while Polymarket selects a single outcome under its precedence rules. They also use different settlement times and fallback rules, without changing the underlying question.
  • Nobel Peace Prize winner 2026? — International Criminal Court

    This market will resolve to YES if International Criminal Court wins the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize. If the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize is jointly awarded to multiple people and/or organizations, this contract will resolve to YES for International Criminal Court if International Criminal Court is one of the named laureates. If International Criminal Court is not named as a 2026 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, this market will resolve to NO. The primary resolution source will be the official Nobel Prize/Norwegian Nobel Committee announcement for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, currently scheduled for Friday, October 9, 2026. If no 2026 Nobel Peace Prize laureate is announced by December 31, 2026, the market will resolve based on the latest official statement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee, or to NO if no laureate is awarded. This event is not mutually exclusive because the Nobel Peace Prize may be shared by multiple laureates. View the [full rules](https://cdn.builder.io/api/v1/file/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2F6ab851ab38184aa39ef96a501a3da772).

    read Oct 9, 10:37 AM UTC

  • Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? International Criminal Court

    If International Criminal Court wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Nobel Foundation. Any references to the Nobel Foundation or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Nobel Foundation and Kalshi.

    read Oct 9, 01:54 AM UTC

  • Polymarketthis market

    Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

    This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will ICRC win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will World Central Kitchen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Mark Carney win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the International Peace Research Association win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Yad Vashem win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Jimmy Lai win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen

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Comments204

Discussion on Predxy

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204 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • DonationsReceiver · 23 days ago

    THE PRESIDENT OF PEACE!!!

  • DonationsReceiver · 28 days ago

    The president of the US and the DUMBEST MOTHERFUCKER ON EARTH should be 2 separate people

  • sciuboi · last month

    tremendous guy, best guy I've frankly never met!

  • adonpoli · last month

    Such a good guy

  • adonpoli · last month

    Yeah sad

  • DonationsReceiver · last month

    why no liquidity here?

  • sciuboi · last month

    I love donald

  • GenaTheBondKilIer · last month

    Trump has ended 8 wars and just started one, he deserves it

  • jjjjok6666 · last month

    Donny pls finish war in Ukraine and get your prize, thx

  • jjjjok6666 · last month

    Donny pls finish war in Ukraine and get your Nobel prize, thx

  • Slimy-Trial · last month

    Where is benjamin netanyahu?

  • Threadbare-Signal · last month

    New entities were added against the rules!!! There was a premise in the previous rules that no new entities will be added!!! That's a clear violation!!!

  • TheDao · 2 months ago

    They need to add Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs), They consistently top shortlist evaluations by experts like the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), which closely tracks Nobel trends...

  • GenaTheBondKilIer · 2 months ago

    Discord

  • maybebrian · 2 months ago

    How do we add options to this? My frontrunners arent even on here

  • abdoohl · 2 months ago

    Ali IMHO

  • sbolt6125 · 2 months ago

    omg, nobody please

  • Thedevilwearsprada · 2 months ago

    Bibi lmao

  • DontTrustMe · 3 months ago

    But we are Charlie Kirk. So all of us? 🫨

  • 8908DFG · 3 months ago

    Charlie Kirk

As of Oct 25, 10:45 AM UTC