What will be the top AI model on Oct 12, 2026? claude-opus-5-max
Price has not been independently checked yet.
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If claude-opus-5-max is the top-ranked AI model on Oct 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| What will be the top AI model on Oct 12, 2026? gemini-4-argon-high | Kalshi | 99% gemini-4-argon-high | Open |
| What will be the top AI model on Oct 12, 2026? claude-opus-4-6-high | Kalshi | 99% No | Open |
| What will be the top AI model on Oct 12, 2026? claude-opus-5.5-high | Kalshi | 99% No | Open |
| What will be the top AI model on Oct 12, 2026? gemini-3.8-flash-high | Kalshi | 99% No | Open |
| What will be the top AI model on Oct 12, 2026? claude-opus-4-6 | Kalshi | 99% No | Open |
| What will be the top AI model on Oct 12, 2026? claude-fable-5.1-max | Kalshi | 99% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 13 days agoDiscussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
As of Oct 25, 09:45 AM UTC